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  • OPINION

    Time to stop making empty promises

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 07/03/2024

    » The Nikkei 225 Index just broke 40,000, surpassing the record high of 1989. The stellar stock market performance happened amid the fact that Japan's economy is officially in recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

  • OPINION

    BoT is absolutely right in holding rates

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 22/02/2024

    » The whole country -- the government, its economic agencies, private economic research houses, the private sector, and academics -- is accusing the Bank of Thailand (BoT) of being stubborn for refusing to lower interest rates to support the weak economy, aka, the economy in crisis.

  • OPINION

    Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?

    News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024

    » Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!

  • OPINION

    Financial crisis looms over Thailand

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/01/2024

    » The definition of an "economic crisis" is much debated in Thailand. This is because one of the requirements for enacting the emergency fiscal borrowing decree is that the economy must be in crisis.

  • OPINION

    3.2% GDP growth 'pie in the sky'

    News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/01/2024

    » This year must be my lucky year. One of the key points of this article is to underline the risk of financial crisis compared to 1997. But this time it would not come from bank failures, it would come from defaults on corporate bonds and commercial papers. The reasons are the low cash position of corporates from many years of weak economic performance and, most importantly, today's super-tight domestic liquidity to refinance matured bonds and papers. I am a little wary that readers may scorn such a bold opinion. However, out of the blue, my opinion was proven correct on Monday when Italian-Thai Development (ITD) announced the postponement of payments on its bonds due in 2024 to 2026 with a total value of 14.45 billion baht for two years.

  • OPINION

    Will foreign investors still be wooed?

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023

    » This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.

  • OPINION

    2024 GDP forecast is wishful thinking

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 14/12/2023

    » If one thinks 2023 was a not-so-good year for the Thai economy because GDP growth is likely below 2%, 2024 could be worse owing to three major economic risks: liquidity inadequacy, high gasoline price, and high electricity cost.

  • OPINION

    A 4-win solution to the handout plan

    News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/11/2023

    » There could be a four-win solution to the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme.

  • OPINION

    Liquidity shortage a big risk for govt

    News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/11/2023

    » Liquidity is the most ignored issue in economics. Liquidity is considered to be like "oxygen" which is readily available when needed and, thus, has no intrinsic value.

  • OPINION

    Dear Santa: Please send $14 billion

    Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 02/11/2023

    » What Thailand needs is money, money -- and money. The government needs 560 billion baht to run its 10,000 baht cash handout programme next year, and the country needs (at least) 420 billion baht to prevent the 4th quarter economy from collapsing.

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