Showing 11 - 20 of 61
Pheu Thai's giveaway might just work
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/04/2023
» If one plans to read only one economic analysis article for this year, this is it.
Signs of economic slowdown alarming
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/01/2023
» The Thai government, businesses, and citizens are cherishing the news of returning Chinese tourists with the first group of 286 passengers who arrived on Monday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates that 5 million Chinese tourists will visit our country this year, bringing with them 250 billion baht in spending money. I have two comments on this joyful news. Firstly, the ban on the sale of outbound group and package travel imposed by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Jan 27, 2020, is still in effect. There is no telling when this ban will be relaxed or lifted. Second, the mass arrival of Chinese tourists was already factored into the World Bank's GDP growth projections. The Bank projected that the Thai economy would grow by 3.6% in 2023. To achieve such growth, the arrival of 22.4 million foreign tourists, with 6.2 million from China, was assumed.
Economic risks to watch out for in 2023
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 29/12/2022
» The world will end 2022 with big celebrations. Yet not because of robust economic growth, as growth this year is projected to be only 3.2% -- following the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) recent projections -- compared to 6.0% growth in 2021.
How are Thais spending so much now?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/12/2022
» Third-quarter GDP growth for 2022 (Q3/2022) is 4.5% -- substantially higher than the expected 4%. The main driving factor is robust private consumption -- not tourism income -- which expanded 9% in real terms and 15.7% in nominal terms, compared to the same quarter last year. On the surface, this high growth phenomenon may look normal as most Asean countries have enjoyed similar benefits of low Covid infections and pent-up demand. For instance, Malaysia's private consumption also expanded 15.7% in the same third quarter.
World economy downhill from here
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 17/11/2022
» When I planned for this week's article, I wanted to write about the illusions of today's economic picture such as the robust GDP growth in emerging economies, declining inflation rates, booming travel business, strengthening of the Thai baht, and so on. But even with the economic data and theories to back up my claims, who would believe me? Who would believe that the current robust demand is nothing but an example of short-term, pent-up demand after two years of the Covid-19 outbreak? Who would consider the fact that consumers have no increased purchasing power to sustain today's level of consumption? Most of all, who would imagine that things would change drastically in the fourth quarter after consumers face the reality of a higher cost of living and stagnant income?
Risk of global financial crisis spiking
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/11/2022
» I am writing this article in Tokyo. Judging from my walks around the city during the past week, and despite the fact everyone is wearing face masks, it's like Covid has vanished. Subways and trains are jam-packed and shopping areas are full of people. However, the pandemic has left some scars. Many shops have gone under, including my favourite 50-year-old sushi restaurant.
Opinion: Thai reserves are quickly depleting
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/09/2022
» Thailand's international reserves made headlines in mid-July when they fell US$3.3 billion in a single week.
Thai economic contraction beckons
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/08/2022
» Why does the Thai economy risk facing an economic contraction in the second half of this year? The answer is simple.
Demand destruction the new buzzword
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/08/2022
» On Feb 23, a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the world crude oil price was US$90.60 (3,221 baht) per barrel. Russian oil supply disruption and demand recovery from Covid-19 dragged the crude oil price to almost $120 at the end of May, after the US and European central banks sent strong signals that they would rapidly increase interest rates to contain inflation, despite the cost of a further economic slowdown.
Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/07/2022
» By the time this article is published, readers will know how much the US Fed funds rate has been raised for the fourth time this year. It does not really matter whether the rate is raised by 0.75% or 1% this time because the Fed will need to keep raising the rate (FFR) until it can effectively control inflation.