• OPINION

  2024 financial crisis may be a silent one

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 04/04/2024

  » When an economy faces a financial crisis, it can create a big bang like the mass collapse of financial institutions such as during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Thai Tum Yum Kung crisis of 1997, the Japanese financial crisis in late 1997, and the US Hamburger crisis of 2008.

• OPINION

  Structural flaws impede our economy

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 21/03/2024

  » It took Japan 17 years to learn that a macroeconomic policy is for stabilising an economy, not stimulating growth. Due to low economic growth in the "lost decade" following the financial crisis in the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Japan adopted an unthinkable monetary policy of a negative interest rate in 2007 by pushing the short-term policy rate down to -0.1%.

• OPINION

  Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?

  News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024

  » Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!

• OPINION

  Financial crisis looms over Thailand

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/01/2024

  » The definition of an "economic crisis" is much debated in Thailand. This is because one of the requirements for enacting the emergency fiscal borrowing decree is that the economy must be in crisis.

• OPINION

  3.2% GDP growth 'pie in the sky'

  News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/01/2024

  » This year must be my lucky year. One of the key points of this article is to underline the risk of financial crisis compared to 1997. But this time it would not come from bank failures, it would come from defaults on corporate bonds and commercial papers. The reasons are the low cash position of corporates from many years of weak economic performance and, most importantly, today's super-tight domestic liquidity to refinance matured bonds and papers. I am a little wary that readers may scorn such a bold opinion. However, out of the blue, my opinion was proven correct on Monday when Italian-Thai Development (ITD) announced the postponement of payments on its bonds due in 2024 to 2026 with a total value of 14.45 billion baht for two years.

• OPINION

  Will foreign investors still be wooed?

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023

  » This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.

• OPINION

  2024 GDP forecast is wishful thinking

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 14/12/2023

  » If one thinks 2023 was a not-so-good year for the Thai economy because GDP growth is likely below 2%, 2024 could be worse owing to three major economic risks: liquidity inadequacy, high gasoline price, and high electricity cost.

• OPINION

  A tale of liquidity and (too much) debt

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 05/10/2023

  » Before starting the article, I want to convey a message to the government. The message is "Nothing is free; everything has to be paid for". Acting like Santa Claus is nice, but the government should be aware that every handout gift comes with a price tag.

• OPINION

  Why do I smell tom yum kung cooking?

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 10/08/2023

  » Readers who follow my bi-weekly economic column will have no doubt that the tom yum kung I am referring to is not a traditional Thai soup dish but the financial crisis of 1997.

• OPINION

  New govt faces 4 economic time bombs

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 18/05/2023

  » The election result is already out and Thailand is heading for a big policy change. As the party with most seats, the Move Forward Party will form the government. The second place-getter -- the Pheu Thai Party -- has agreed to be in the coalition. These two parties, however, have totally different views on how to run the economy.

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