• OPINION

  Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?

  News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024

  » Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!

• OPINION

  Will foreign investors still be wooed?

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023

  » This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.

• OPINION

  A 4-win solution to the handout plan

  News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/11/2023

  » There could be a four-win solution to the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme.

• OPINION

  Liquidity shortage a big risk for govt

  News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/11/2023

  » Liquidity is the most ignored issue in economics. Liquidity is considered to be like "oxygen" which is readily available when needed and, thus, has no intrinsic value.

• OPINION

  A new middle class and core industries

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 04/05/2023

  » This article, after a few interruptions, is Part 3 of "Changing Thailand: The Series." It began with a prologue that presented an overview, emphasising that Thailand has been lagging behind its neighbours in terms of per-capita income growth.

• OPINION

  Putting a dampener on Thai recovery

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 26/01/2023

  » After three years in which the economy suffered from Covid effects, I am sorry to say that 2023 will not be the year of economic recovery as everyone had hoped. The global economy will still be plagued by inflation threats and several adverse factors such as excessive debt and the Russia-Ukraine war. These negative factors prompted the World Bank to revise its global economic growth prospects downward from 3.0% to 1.7% for 2023. The key point is a marked slowdown from 2.9% growth in 2022.

• OPINION

  World economy downhill from here

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 17/11/2022

  » When I planned for this week's article, I wanted to write about the illusions of today's economic picture such as the robust GDP growth in emerging economies, declining inflation rates, booming travel business, strengthening of the Thai baht, and so on. But even with the economic data and theories to back up my claims, who would believe me? Who would believe that the current robust demand is nothing but an example of short-term, pent-up demand after two years of the Covid-19 outbreak? Who would consider the fact that consumers have no increased purchasing power to sustain today's level of consumption? Most of all, who would imagine that things would change drastically in the fourth quarter after consumers face the reality of a higher cost of living and stagnant income?

• OPINION

  Risk of global financial crisis spiking

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/11/2022

  » I am writing this article in Tokyo. Judging from my walks around the city during the past week, and despite the fact everyone is wearing face masks, it's like Covid has vanished. Subways and trains are jam-packed and shopping areas are full of people. However, the pandemic has left some scars. Many shops have gone under, including my favourite 50-year-old sushi restaurant.

• OPINION

  Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/07/2022

  » By the time this article is published, readers will know how much the US Fed funds rate has been raised for the fourth time this year. It does not really matter whether the rate is raised by 0.75% or 1% this time because the Fed will need to keep raising the rate (FFR) until it can effectively control inflation.

• OPINION

  If jabs don't work, we must have Plan B

  Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 24/06/2021

  » What would you do if you were a government facing a (rapidly) falling economy, receding tax income, ballooning public and private debts, drying up domestic liquidity, and feeble economic relief programmes?

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