Showing 11 - 20 of 49
Pheu Thai's giveaway might just work
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/04/2023
» If one plans to read only one economic analysis article for this year, this is it.
Part 1: The country needs to change
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 09/03/2023
» Before I start the article, I would like to report that Thailand's economic performance in January 2023 was no better than the last quarter of 2022, when GDP growth was merely 1.4%.
Thai economic prospects far from rosy
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 09/02/2023
» Logically, one would imagine that 2023 would be a much better year than 2022. Covid is over in every corner of the earth and economic activities resume. The world oil price is below US$80 (2,677 baht) per barrel and inflation is coming down. At the first meeting of 2023, the Fed raises interest rates to merely 25 basis points as opposed to the 50-75 basis points for each meeting in 2022.
Putting a dampener on Thai recovery
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 26/01/2023
» After three years in which the economy suffered from Covid effects, I am sorry to say that 2023 will not be the year of economic recovery as everyone had hoped. The global economy will still be plagued by inflation threats and several adverse factors such as excessive debt and the Russia-Ukraine war. These negative factors prompted the World Bank to revise its global economic growth prospects downward from 3.0% to 1.7% for 2023. The key point is a marked slowdown from 2.9% growth in 2022.
Signs of economic slowdown alarming
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/01/2023
» The Thai government, businesses, and citizens are cherishing the news of returning Chinese tourists with the first group of 286 passengers who arrived on Monday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates that 5 million Chinese tourists will visit our country this year, bringing with them 250 billion baht in spending money. I have two comments on this joyful news. Firstly, the ban on the sale of outbound group and package travel imposed by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Jan 27, 2020, is still in effect. There is no telling when this ban will be relaxed or lifted. Second, the mass arrival of Chinese tourists was already factored into the World Bank's GDP growth projections. The Bank projected that the Thai economy would grow by 3.6% in 2023. To achieve such growth, the arrival of 22.4 million foreign tourists, with 6.2 million from China, was assumed.
Economic risks to watch out for in 2023
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 29/12/2022
» The world will end 2022 with big celebrations. Yet not because of robust economic growth, as growth this year is projected to be only 3.2% -- following the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) recent projections -- compared to 6.0% growth in 2021.
B600 minimum wage is quite doable
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 15/12/2022
» The most debated economic topic of the month must be Pheu Thai Party's campaign promise to raise the minimum wage to 600 baht per day by 2027, from the current minimum wage of 354 baht.
How are Thais spending so much now?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/12/2022
» Third-quarter GDP growth for 2022 (Q3/2022) is 4.5% -- substantially higher than the expected 4%. The main driving factor is robust private consumption -- not tourism income -- which expanded 9% in real terms and 15.7% in nominal terms, compared to the same quarter last year. On the surface, this high growth phenomenon may look normal as most Asean countries have enjoyed similar benefits of low Covid infections and pent-up demand. For instance, Malaysia's private consumption also expanded 15.7% in the same third quarter.
World economy downhill from here
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 17/11/2022
» When I planned for this week's article, I wanted to write about the illusions of today's economic picture such as the robust GDP growth in emerging economies, declining inflation rates, booming travel business, strengthening of the Thai baht, and so on. But even with the economic data and theories to back up my claims, who would believe me? Who would believe that the current robust demand is nothing but an example of short-term, pent-up demand after two years of the Covid-19 outbreak? Who would consider the fact that consumers have no increased purchasing power to sustain today's level of consumption? Most of all, who would imagine that things would change drastically in the fourth quarter after consumers face the reality of a higher cost of living and stagnant income?
Risk of global financial crisis spiking
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/11/2022
» I am writing this article in Tokyo. Judging from my walks around the city during the past week, and despite the fact everyone is wearing face masks, it's like Covid has vanished. Subways and trains are jam-packed and shopping areas are full of people. However, the pandemic has left some scars. Many shops have gone under, including my favourite 50-year-old sushi restaurant.