Showing 1 - 10 of 29
Handout difficult without BoT's help
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 18/04/2024
» The purpose of this article is to educate the public about the real issue of the digital wallet scheme. The issue is not "HOW to get the 500 billion baht?" but "Is there 500 billion baht AVAILABLE to be borrowed?"
Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024
» Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!
Financial crisis looms over Thailand
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/01/2024
» The definition of an "economic crisis" is much debated in Thailand. This is because one of the requirements for enacting the emergency fiscal borrowing decree is that the economy must be in crisis.
3.2% GDP growth 'pie in the sky'
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/01/2024
» This year must be my lucky year. One of the key points of this article is to underline the risk of financial crisis compared to 1997. But this time it would not come from bank failures, it would come from defaults on corporate bonds and commercial papers. The reasons are the low cash position of corporates from many years of weak economic performance and, most importantly, today's super-tight domestic liquidity to refinance matured bonds and papers. I am a little wary that readers may scorn such a bold opinion. However, out of the blue, my opinion was proven correct on Monday when Italian-Thai Development (ITD) announced the postponement of payments on its bonds due in 2024 to 2026 with a total value of 14.45 billion baht for two years.
A 4-win solution to the handout plan
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/11/2023
» There could be a four-win solution to the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme.
Dear Santa: Please send $14 billion
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 02/11/2023
» What Thailand needs is money, money -- and money. The government needs 560 billion baht to run its 10,000 baht cash handout programme next year, and the country needs (at least) 420 billion baht to prevent the 4th quarter economy from collapsing.
Downsides to digital cash handout plan
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 21/09/2023
» I announced in a previous article that today's story would focus on liquidity and debt. But after careful consideration, I have decided to postpone this for another fortnight. The main reason being that I want to wait for the Bank of Thailand's economic data release for August due out on Sept 29.
World faces prospect of financial tumult
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 23/03/2023
» Today, I was supposed to present the third article, Managing Household Debt, in the series "Changing Thailand". In fact, I have finished drafting a payment reduction model which could reduce monthly debt payments by 4.6 times without the hair-cutting debt principal or requiring government financial support. But I will delay that article for now.
An Asean country might be near a crisis
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/10/2022
» I am talking about an imaginary country which is a member of Asean. This country may or may not exist. To avoid unnecessary negative repercussions, this country shall remain nameless and be referred to as country "N" with its currency "D". This country is the star of Asean with a 5-year average GDP growth rate of 7% prior to the Covid outbreak.
Interest gap could spell economic peril
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 06/10/2022
» On a recent Monday, the Fed called an emergency meeting. The discussion topics were not made known. Could it possibly be about turmoil in the UK bond market and the financial troubles of large investment banks? At this fragile time, the world cannot afford another Lehman Brothers-type disaster.