Showing 1 - 9 of 9
Demand destruction the new buzzword
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/08/2022
» On Feb 23, a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the world crude oil price was US$90.60 (3,221 baht) per barrel. Russian oil supply disruption and demand recovery from Covid-19 dragged the crude oil price to almost $120 at the end of May, after the US and European central banks sent strong signals that they would rapidly increase interest rates to contain inflation, despite the cost of a further economic slowdown.
Expect inflation to worsen, not lessen
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 21/04/2022
» The economic theory is clear. Inflation always precedes a recession. Investors also think similarly. A recent Market Live Poll conducted by Bloomberg shows that 15% of investors are expecting a US recession to begin in 2022, 48% in 2023, 21% in 2024 and 16% looking at 2025 or later. Deutsch Bank also believes the US economy could face a recession in 2023.
Beware of looming labour shortages
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/10/2021
» Despite the recent estimation that there are now close to a million unemployed Thai workers, Thai tourism and service industries will face a severe labour shortage of 300,000 to 500,000 people after the relaxation of Covid-19 control measures and the opening up of the country to foreign visitors.
Thai economy nearing 'do it, or die'
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 19/08/2021
» In my previous articles, I have suggested the economy is in bad shape, and that at least 2 trillion baht in economic relief packages is needed to prevent the economy from collapsing.
Lessons from the 1997 economic crisis
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/04/2021
» Today is April Fools' day. But there is no fooling about the threat of liquidity crisis. I am sure that many readers are sceptical about the possibility of a liquidity crunch in this country. First, the government debt to GDP ratio is less than 60% which is not high by international standards. Second, Thailand now, unlike in 1997, has adopted a flexible exchange rate system which has a low risk of currency speculation. And, third, the country has international reserves equivalent to 11 months of imports of goods and services which is two times higher than IMF's suggested requirement. How could an economy this good be at risk?
THAI restructuring will not be easy
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 18/06/2020
» While I was the head of the Corporate Finance Department at National Finance (now known as Thanachart Bank), I handled many cases of debt restructuring. The largest one was the 20-billion-baht debt of a hospital chain.
Is it all the Bank of Thailand's fault?
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/09/2019
» Currently, the two most pressing economic issues in Thailand are the appreciation of the baht and the high level of household debt.
HK protest stems from economic plight
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 15/08/2019
» My column today was supposed to be an analysis of the Thai economic outlook for the remaining half-year of 2019. However, the ongoing massive upheaval in Hong Kong changed my mind.
Economy faces 4 key hurdles this year
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/08/2019
» The first half of 2019 has already passed and it is a well-known fact that the Thai economy is not in good shape. GDP growth has plummeted from 3.7% in the last quarter of 2018 to 2.8% in the first quarter of this year. Although second-quarter GDP growth will be officially announced soon, raw economic data from April to June indicates a weaker second quarter, particularly in the areas of exports and tourism.