• OPINION

  Cambodia and Laos in the regional mix

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/09/2022

  » As geopolitical tensions from Russian aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing United States-China rivalry intensify, Southeast Asia will be hard-pressed to maintain peace and security. Despite their relatively small size, Cambodia and Laos are two countries whose political trajectories will shape regional outcomes. While Cambodia has consolidated domestic political power with dynamic economic expansion, Laos is looking like a regional laggard facing a deep debt crisis. As Cambodia moves forward, Laos is at risk of being left behind.

• OPINION

  What happens if Asean shrinks to 9?

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/10/2021

  » It all came down to a choice between marginalisation and irrelevance on the one hand and pragmatism and resilience on the other. At its 38th and 39th leaders' meetings and related summits with dialogue partners, Asean chose to remain relevant. In an unprecedented move with far-reaching ramifications, Asean reduced itself to nine participating members from the normal 10, excluding Myanmar. While this bold manoeuvre derived from necessity rather than initiative, it provides Southeast Asia's bloc of smaller states a small window of opportunity to regain its footing and revitalise its central role in promoting regional peace and stability in Asia.

• OPINION

  Asean lags behind Myanmar curve

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/08/2021

  » The more it tries to catch up on Myanmar's post-coup crisis, the more Asean falls behind. Since Myanmar's military takeover on Feb 1, Asean has spent nearly the first three months getting its act together for a "special summit" and a "five-point consensus" on April 24 and then more than another three months to meekly implement the agreement. In the event, the appointment of Brunei's Second Foreign Minister Erywan bin Mohd Yusof as the Asean envoy to promote dialogue and humanitarian assistance in Myanmar is likely to prove too little, too late for what has been desperately needed on the ground.

• OPINION

  China's way with a divided, inert Asean

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/06/2021

  » The recent Asean-China foreign ministers' meeting early this month in Chongqing was crucial for its timing and circumstances. Co-chaired by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin, it was the first "in-person" meeting among foreign ministers of both sides since the Covid-19 period began early last year.

• OPINION

  Myanmar: From diplomacy to force

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/04/2021

  » At its recent "special" summit in Jakarta on Myanmar's crisis, Asean reached its diplomatic maximum by coming up with a "five-point consensus" that will likely prove too little and too slow. Constrained by consensus and its non-interference principle where any of its 10 members has a virtual veto, Asean's overdue response to Myanmar's fast-escalating violence on the ground is likely to prove ineffective. As Asean's diplomacy faces limitations, more of Myanmar's outcomes are likely to be decided by the use of force in an intensifying civil war.

• OPINION

  Govt ducks Asean Myanmar challenge

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/04/2021

  » Asean's highly anticipated "special" summit tomorrow in Jakarta on Myanmar's crisis can be declared moot on arrival. What goes into it is likely more telling that what will come out of it. Nearly three months and more than 730 civilian deaths after Myanmar's military coup on Feb 1, Asean is still unable to address its rogue member state's atrocities against its own people. The summit attendance foretells trends and dynamics of what might come next in Myanmar's fast-moving and deadly events on the ground and how they will shape regional responses and global concerns.

• OPINION

  Regional order in East Asia after summits

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/11/2017

  » While Asean-related leaders' meetings tend to come and go with a lot of spectacle and brouhaha without much lasting substantive impact, the recently concluded summits of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Vietnam and the United States-Asean and the East Asia Summit in the Philippines will be seen in hindsight as highly consequential. The geopolitical and geoeconomic positions of just about all attending countries were more or less known before hand. This most recent summit season was about the policy orientation and preferences of the US under President Donald Trump.

• OPINION

  Thailand fits bill as tough broker on South China Sea

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/09/2013

  » Over the past several years, tensions in the South China Sea over conflicting territorial claims between Asean states and China have become Southeast Asia's thorniest obstacle for regional peace and prosperity.

• OPINION

  Other 'facilitators' needed in South after Najib poll win

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 08/05/2013

  » Overthrowing an incumbent regime that has been entrenched for 55 years is akin to beating a reigning champion boxer with multiple belts. Unless the challenger delivers a clean knockout or a debilitating knockdown, he is unlikely to be given the decision by the judges. And so it was for Malaysia's much anticipated elections last Sunday. It was a split decision but the champion walks away with victory amid bitter cries of foul play and dirty tricks.

• OPINION

  Cultivating the major powers

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/10/2012

  » Among the countries of Southeast Asia, Thailand holds special and resilient relationships with all of the major powers that are the region's movers and shakers.

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