• OPINION

  Tolerating populism for democracy

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/10/2023

  » The so-called “super deal” in August that resulted in the return of Thaksin Shinawatra and the formation of the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition government under Srettha Thavisin evidently has its limitations. It appears to be rejected by sections of the conservative old guard who still wants to resort to extra-parliamentary ways and means to undermine Thailand’s delicate parliamentary democracy. Reminiscent of past protests against Mr Thaksin’s brand of populism, a new round of extra-parliamentary political movement has begun in earnest with the petition launched by 99 prominent economists, including former central bank governors, against the Srettha government’s 10,000-baht digital wallet policy.

• OPINION

  Next poll brings highest stakes, risks

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/12/2022

  » In the face of the myriad of questions and issues that beset Thai politics in the lead-up to the general election, which must be held by May 7, the biggest facts and dilemmas are not being raised. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is now headed to complete nine years in office, the first five of which were under a military government after he and his cohorts seized power by force in May 2014, and the last four under an elected coalition government enabled by the 2017 constitution crafted by a committee the ruling generals had set up. Moving forward, Thailand risks settling into a prolonged period of economic stagnation and political decay unless there is a qualitative change of government after the poll.

• OPINION

  Cambodia and Laos in the regional mix

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/09/2022

  » As geopolitical tensions from Russian aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing United States-China rivalry intensify, Southeast Asia will be hard-pressed to maintain peace and security. Despite their relatively small size, Cambodia and Laos are two countries whose political trajectories will shape regional outcomes. While Cambodia has consolidated domestic political power with dynamic economic expansion, Laos is looking like a regional laggard facing a deep debt crisis. As Cambodia moves forward, Laos is at risk of being left behind.

• OPINION

  The politics of the Chadchart juggernaut

  Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 01/07/2022

  » In countries where integrity, competence and popular legitimacy in leadership are valued -- for example, in Scandinavia, Singapore or Taiwan -- Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt would be considered fairly average. He would merely be another good leader who exudes modesty, humility, capability and authenticity, always in touch with and answerable to his constituents.

• OPINION

  Brexit follows history's recurrent curve

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/11/2019

  » The longer the time spent together, the more painful any breakup is likely to be. This reality dogs the United Kingdom more than three years after its referendum to exit the European Union, a process commonly known as "Brexit". Notwithstanding opponents who may wish otherwise, Brexit is now seen as irreversible, especially as the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Boris Johnson is polling well ahead of the Labour Party just a fortnight before polls on Dec 12. Brexit is likely to be viewed in hindsight as part of a de-integration process in a recurrent historical pattern increasingly manifesting in trade protectionism, anti-immigration, and curbs on international cooperation.

• OPINION

  Superpower rivalry to put region to test

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/08/2019

  » More than 18 months in, the trade war between the United States and China is not having its intended effects. Despite a flurry of US-led tariff hikes on Chinese products followed by China's retaliatory tax increases on American-made goods since January last year, the government of President Donald Trump is not perceived to be winning the trade conflict. China has proved more resilient and resourceful than many had anticipated. What this means is that the trade war is going to last much longer than many had expected. It is also likely to spread to other areas beyond trade and degenerate into a full-fledged non-military war.

• OPINION

  China's Belt & Road needs to listen more

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/11/2018

  » In the aftermath of a tense Asean-led summit season, it is clear now that the United States and China are engaged in a great-power competition not seen since the Cold War. The US-China trade war, irrespective of negotiated talks in Buenos Aires between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, is set to deteriorate over the next two years and probably longer. The two superpowers may have fundamental and structural differences that cannot be resolved without a sweeping deal that realigns their geopolitical status and geoeconomic interests in a way that is acceptable to both, an unlikely prospect. So the confrontation will likely intensify.

• OPINION

  China's Belt & Road impact on Thailand

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 28/09/2018

  » As China's ambitious Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) -- popularly known as the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI -- continues to make ripples and waves in international affairs, its likely impact on mainland Southeast Asia warrants attention. Unlike many of the countries on the Eurasian landmass and along waterways from the South China Sea through the Indian Ocean to eastern Africa, Thailand and its immediate neighbours are not directly on the BRI path.

• OPINION

  Belt and Road is China's 'manifest destiny'

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/09/2018

  » No national project of global reach carries as much stake and attracts as much attention as China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Conceived in 2013, the BRI is the colossal brainchild of President Xi Jinping and his government.

• OPINION

  Prospects after Cambodia's fabricated poll

  News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 27/07/2018

  » While Thailand has a seemingly indefinite military government with no clear poll date, Cambodia is holding an election on July 29 with a foregone conclusion. After methodically taken apart oppositional forces, the incumbent government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, under the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), is set to win a landslide. At issue now will be what happens after the election. At least three dynamics are in play. How they intersect and enmesh will determine Cambodia's political future.

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