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OPINION

Asean's Myanmar crisis out of control

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/03/2021

» Myanmar's spiralling post-coup violence and bloodshed has become Asean's existential crisis. It is customary to pin hopes on an Asean way of fudging and nudging the main protagonists into some workable, face-saving compromise to save the day but this time the situation is dire and dark. Unless the 10-member regional organisation can make a difference in halting Myanmar's descent into uncontrollable violence and potential civil war, Asean is at risk of undermining and perhaps ending its success story.

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OPINION

Asean's declining common denominator

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/03/2021

» Asean is stuck deeper than ever between a rock and a hard place in view of its political impotence in dealing with the Myanmar armed forces' power grab on Feb 1. In an informal meeting online among its foreign ministers earlier this week, Asean not only failed to come up with common ground to broker a way forward away from the mounting bloodshed in Myanmar but displayed fundamental differences that have lowered the organisation's common denominator to new depths. The implications from Asean's sagging stance is that the pushback against Myanmar's military takeover must be carried out mainly by domestic political forces in the absence of regional effectiveness and with the limitations of global sanctions.

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OPINION

Myanmar coup: Asean's new fault line

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/02/2021

» Already geopolitically divided by China's regional assertiveness, Asean is now facing a new fault line from Myanmar's recent military coup. Just like its divergent views toward China, Asean's mixed preferences toward the Myanmar armed forces' abrupt seizure of power on Feb 1 threaten to further weaken Southeast Asia's 10-member grouping and marginalise its role as the central organising vehicle for regional peace and stability.

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OPINION

Myanmar coup poses many dilemmas

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/02/2021

» Myanmar's military coup on Feb 1 and the popular anger and ongoing local protests in reaction to it inside the country pose multiple and multi-layered dilemmas for all parties involved. The Tatmadaw, as Myanmar's armed forces are known, led by junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is now mired in repercussions and consequences well beyond its original intent. Whether the Tatmadaw prevails or not, Myanmar is unlikely to regain the traction of reform and progress that has been on track in the past decade.

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OPINION

Values agenda back in US foreign policy

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/01/2021

» No presidential transition in the United States is likely to prove more abrupt and dramatic as between former President Donald Trump and newly elected President Joe Biden. Within minutes of formally taking office, Mr Biden signed a slew of executive orders, formalised a policymaking team, and reset the course of domestic and foreign policies. In reversing Mr Trump's nationalist, unilateralist posture and relaunching internationalism and multilateralism, Mr Biden is rebalancing US interests and values. His arrival at the White House is not as much about "America is back" on the global stage but more about "values are back in American foreign policy".

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OPINION

Thailand's murky jab considerations

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 08/01/2021

» Thailand is off to an unpromising start in 2021. As the global coronavirus pandemic rolls into its second year, much of the country is gripped by a new wave of Covid-19 infections after nearly nine months of minimal cases. As case numbers have more than doubled in recent days, the fresh wave has revealed the gross incompetence and corruption among Thai authorities. More alarmingly, while other countries are seeing light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel with expanding vaccination, Thai people's vaccine accessibility and affordability appear murky.

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OPINION

China-US rivalry on Mekong mainland

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 27/11/2020

» Unlike other key foreign policy areas where President-elect Joe Biden will likely change the course left behind by outgoing President Donald Trump, the Mekong River region in mainland Southeast Asia represents a low-hanging fruit where continuity from Washington carries consensus. As China has dominated the Mekong space by operating a string of upstream dams and controlling downstream river resources, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam as adversely affected riparian countries have looked for ways and means to mitigate and counterbalance Beijing's aggressive freshwater offensive. All the incoming Biden administration has to do is to keep its eye on the Mekong and work with like-minded partners to keep mainland Southeast Asian countries from becoming Beijing's uncontested front yard.

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OPINION

US ties with Asia, SE Asia, Thailand

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/11/2020

» Under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden, the United States' relations with Asia broadly and with Southeast Asia and Thailand in particular are set to undergo a qualitative shift in tone and direction. At issue are to what extent Mr Biden will adopt the foreign policy outlook and orientation of former president Barack Obama in 2008-16 and whether he will retain some or reject most of the Asia policy legacy under the outgoing government of President Donald Trump.

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OPINION

US presidential poll and implications

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/11/2020

» It is surprisingly unsurprising. Contrary to most polls and pundits, incumbent United States President Donald J Trump did not lose by a landslide in the presidential election this week. The final results are so close that both candidates, Mr Trump and Democratic Party rival Joe Biden, have claimed victory. Despite ongoing rancour and acrimony until the next US president is sworn in next January, several outcomes and implications are already clear.

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OPINION

Thai education reform is top priority

Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/10/2020

» Of the myriad reforms that have been demanded by the ongoing student-led protests, Thailand's deficient and outdated education system is second to none. Education reform has become a self-contained and separate agenda for change. Thai students across the country, particularly in high schools, have been awakened and angry at the fact that they have been kept in the dark and cloistered in a state-imposed mind bubble for so long. Unless it is answered, this awakening and anger is likely to galvanise more protests and point to broader changes that have been pent up for decades.