Showing 61 - 70 of 249
Youth movement has staying power
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/08/2020
» As Thailand's youth movement for political change gathers momentum, it has already shown unprecedented trends and patterns. Moving forward, the conservative forces who oppose change and reform will likely train their sights on these young demonstrators to deny and derail them through manipulation and coercion. But this youth movement is unlikely to stop without a fight. These young men and women of high school and university age are here to stay for the long haul because their collective future, not just the ideology and ideals they espouse, is at stake.
Covid success coming at a heavy price
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/07/2020
» It was a matter of time before the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha became a victim of its own misguided success in handling the coronavirus pandemic. By presiding over a public mindset of "zero" local virus infections, the government raised unrealistic expectations at a high price. The fiasco that transpired in Rayong last week, when an infected Egyptian air force official was allowed to roam in a shopping mall and thereby fuelled fears of "second wave" infections, should serve as a wake-up call for an overdue change in virus-fighting strategy.
Domestic drivers of superpower rivalry
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 10/07/2020
» The coronavirus pandemic is fundamentally global but its impact is mainly local because of the international system of state sovereignty, borders and divergent national interests. What is needed to cope with, contain and overcome the pandemic is more international cooperation and coordination. But we are seeing less international efforts to fight the virus together and more self-help where every nation fends for itself. The upshot from this fractured and fragmented international system during Covid-19 is the primacy of domestic determinants of international outcomes. Nowhere is this reality clearer than the competition and confrontation between the United States and China.
Undue politicisation at finance and BoT
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/07/2020
» Thailand's economic growth projections continue to head south as the coronavirus crisis unfolds in the second half of the year. In its most recent forecast, the Bank of Thailand anticipates a sharp contraction of 8.1% this year, worse than the 5.3% it predicted in March. Downside macroeconomic risks are substantial as the Covid-19 pandemic could still degenerate and cause further global health and economic havoc. In this dire environment, Thailand will need steady and seasoned hands to oversee macroeconomic levers. Yet both the finance ministry portfolio and the BoT governorship now face uncertainty and potential politicisation that bode ill for effective and autonomous fiscal and monetary policies.
Geoeconomic implications of Covid-19
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/06/2020
» The longer the coronavirus pandemic wends its way around the world, the more it takes on permanent features. As case infections still persist virulently, especially in the US, Brazil, Russia and India, states, societies and individuals are being forced to make adjustments. There will be winners and losers in the geoeconomic competition for market shares and supply chains. Those with more effective public health systems will stand in good stead with opportunities to re-emerge less scathed and better positioned to carry on, whereas others with less adequate health infrastructure will face more risks and disadvantages. For the first time in generations, health security has become the main determinant in the fate of nations and peoples.
Thailand's strategic path is rudderless
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/06/2020
» As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc worldwide, domestic tension and pressure will compel three broad responses from the various afflicted countries. First, these countries may react to virus-induced domestic challenges by blaming and taking it out on outsiders. Alternatively, they may be so preoccupied at home that they become marginalised abroad. In other instances, countries that have coped effectively with Covid-19 will be able to regain their footing faster and move on sooner as the rest of the pack remains bogged down in acrimony and discord.
Thai-Australian ties in the regional mix
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/06/2020
» Unlike the externally originated coronavirus pandemic, the mass protests in the United States in the aftermath of George Floyd's wrongful death at the hands of police officers in Minneapolis are internally driven. Seen from outside, the public fury, street demonstrations and ensuing violence over the fatal suffocation of Floyd, a black man, yield geopolitical ramifications. If the US is socially unwell and geopolitically unreliable, regional states in Asia will have to respond accordingly in view of the US-China rivalry and competition. A case in point is Thailand-Australia relations in the regional mix.
Thai Airways a microcosm of Thailand
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/05/2020
» Not so long ago, when air travel was not so commonplace, Thai nationals studying and working abroad could feel like they were half-way home when they saw Thai Airways (THAI) planes on tarmacs around the world. It was a symbolic comfort to know that getting on one of the national flag carrier's aircraft would eventually end up getting them home. As THAI has entered a massive and unprecedented reorganisation plan, the national airline is a microcosm of Thailand itself.
Geopolitical outcomes beyond Covid-19
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/05/2020
» The coronavirus crisis is on course to significantly reshape and realign the pecking order among nations in geopolitics. Rather than a fundamental shift in patterns and contours, the likely geopolitical outcomes beyond Covid-19 appear to reinforce pre-existing trends and dynamics. As the two competing superpowers, neither the United States nor China will come out of the pandemic period with flying colours.
Virus risks versus economic imperatives
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 08/05/2020
» The coronavirus pandemic requires responding governments to be agile and quick on their feet, learning by doing and constantly reevaluating their policy mix. What was needed a month or two ago may need to be recalibrated this week for the immediate future in a moving balance of risks and objectives. For Thailand, the balance between public health safety and economic reality has been lost. The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) risks becoming a victim of its own success. This means the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha should now be listening to economists and social workers a little more than epidemiologists and medical doctors as Thailand's virus-fighting priorities shift with twists and turns.