Showing 1 - 10 of 22
Thailand between the US and China
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/03/2024
» Amid what now has to be acknowledged as a direct non-military conflict and a geoeconomic war of sorts between the United States and China, Thailand is in a quandary. While characterising Thailand's geostrategic dilemma as a US-China binary can be exaggerated and misleading, it does have a point. As with many other developing countries in the region, Thailand will come under increasing pressure to choose between the two competing superpowers. The ability not to choose thus becomes an overarching geostrategic objective.
Asian elections, democracy in 2024
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/12/2023
» Billed as the biggest election year ever as more than half of the global population goes to the polls, 2024 will be critical to the debate about democratisation and autocratisation. Asia will lead the way with elections in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, while the most recent polls in Myanmar and Thailand offer long-term lessons about democracy and dictatorship. The salient themes next year will be about the self-perpetuating tendencies of incumbent regimes and the resilience of democratic rule when authoritarianism seemed to have the upper hand.
Global, regional, local trends for 2023
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/12/2022
» Although economic predictions are usually reserved for the foolhardy, as the future is always difficult to ascertain, there are certain trend lines and probabilities that can be discerned at the global and regional level as well as the local level here in Thailand. As a year-end exercise, we can tease out a few contours with a reasonably high degree of probability.
Thai sovereignty is not for abuse
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 28/10/2022
» Thailand's dramatic and damaging shift in position towards Russia's aggression in Ukraine raises myriad questions with few answers -- none holding any water.
Thailand's bankrupt Myanmar policy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/06/2022
» Few signboards foretell the global issues of our time better than what is addressed at the annual meetings of the Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore. After a pandemic-induced two-year hiatus, the most recent SLD covered the gamut on the main stage, from the United States-China geostrategic competition and military modernisation to security cooperation and climate change. The only anomalous single- and small-country focus in a special session was Myanmar.
Russia's war causes regional disarray
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/03/2022
» President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine from Feb 24 is deeply consequential for Southeast Asia, both as a region and Asean as a regional organisation. Even though this region is relatively far away from the cut and thrust of Russia's war in Ukraine, Asean has already encountered new internal divisions stemming from the raging conflict in Europe. As a result, Asean's age-old approach of consensus will likely become more problematic in the search for new and more effective ways of cooperation among like-minded member states.
Early implications of Russia's invasion
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 04/03/2022
» Just one week after his military invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has found some truisms of warfare the hard way. Once war starts, the fog that accompanies it and the friction that it creates lead to unanticipated and unintended outcomes. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, borne out of choice rather than necessity, appears to be dragging on, not the short and swift victory Mr Putin and his military planners might have envisaged. While Russia may still triumph on Ukrainian battlefields, it has lost the war just about everywhere else.
Myanmar military fails sovereignty test
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 04/02/2022
» After seizing power from an elected civilian government on Feb 1 last year, Myanmar's military junta under the State Administration Council (SAC) has fallen short of the four categories that constitute the definition of a sovereign state.
Asean's Myanmar crisis out of control
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/03/2021
» Myanmar's spiralling post-coup violence and bloodshed has become Asean's existential crisis. It is customary to pin hopes on an Asean way of fudging and nudging the main protagonists into some workable, face-saving compromise to save the day but this time the situation is dire and dark. Unless the 10-member regional organisation can make a difference in halting Myanmar's descent into uncontrollable violence and potential civil war, Asean is at risk of undermining and perhaps ending its success story.
Asean's declining common denominator
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/03/2021
» Asean is stuck deeper than ever between a rock and a hard place in view of its political impotence in dealing with the Myanmar armed forces' power grab on Feb 1. In an informal meeting online among its foreign ministers earlier this week, Asean not only failed to come up with common ground to broker a way forward away from the mounting bloodshed in Myanmar but displayed fundamental differences that have lowered the organisation's common denominator to new depths. The implications from Asean's sagging stance is that the pushback against Myanmar's military takeover must be carried out mainly by domestic political forces in the absence of regional effectiveness and with the limitations of global sanctions.