Showing 1 - 10 of 11
Srettha Thavisin fell to hidden forces
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/08/2024
» Hindsight is likely to place Srettha Thavisin in Thai political annals as a prime minister who tried his best but ultimately succumbed to forces way beyond his control. While his nearly 12-month tenure in office came up short on policy deliverables, it nevertheless reset Thailand's foreign policy projection on Myanmar amid more omnidirectional relations with the major powers.
Uncharted territory and a case of déjà vu
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/08/2024
» Another dissolution of another election winner should feel old in Thai politics. But what happened to Move Forward Party is not just déjà vu but uncharted territory. Its dissolution fits a recurrent pattern of systematic subversion of democratic institutions in favour of autocratic preferences in disregard of the will of the majority. The Constitutional Court's breakup of Move Forward also breaks new ground that is increasingly taking centre stage in Thailand's political landscape.
Thailand's spreading rot of irregularity
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/07/2024
» The rot in Thailand's institutional makeup has become so deep, dense and widespread that it can be found nearly everywhere there is controversy. Newly elected Senator Keskamol Pleansamai is the latest case in point. Just about everything that comes with her meteoric rise to the Senate spurs accusations of irregularity and impropriety.
Reshuffle cements Srettha's grip
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/05/2024
» After eight months at the helm, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin staged a much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle with unexpected drama and unsurprising consolidation. As head of a coalition government, Mr Srettha appears more "prime ministerial" as the reshuffle has strengthened his hand to implement the ruling Pheu Thai Party's flagship policies.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Undue politicisation at finance and BoT
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/07/2020
» Thailand's economic growth projections continue to head south as the coronavirus crisis unfolds in the second half of the year. In its most recent forecast, the Bank of Thailand anticipates a sharp contraction of 8.1% this year, worse than the 5.3% it predicted in March. Downside macroeconomic risks are substantial as the Covid-19 pandemic could still degenerate and cause further global health and economic havoc. In this dire environment, Thailand will need steady and seasoned hands to oversee macroeconomic levers. Yet both the finance ministry portfolio and the BoT governorship now face uncertainty and potential politicisation that bode ill for effective and autonomous fiscal and monetary policies.
Top brass, technocrats, politicos all same
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 12/06/2020
» When ostensible technocrats become ambitious politicians, supervised by army generals and beholden to patronage-driven elected politicians, the result is a power struggle, internal party turmoil, and a country being governed to nowhere. This is the current state of Thailand's ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), the head of a motley and fractious 19-member coalition of minor and micro parties, some represented by one single MP, propping up the government of former coup leader and current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Yet in the face of the opposition bloc that is weak because it has been weakened, after the third-largest winner the Future Forward Party from the last election was dissolved earlier this year, the PPRP is on course to be in office for the foreseeable future, as a new poll is not due for another three years. These dire dynamics suggest Thailand will continue to be rudderless, stuck in a quagmire of its own making, with headwinds that may lead to a reckoning tempest.
Challenges from outside parliament
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/03/2020
» While it managed to survive the recent censure debate more comfortably that it had anticipated, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's government is now at a new crossroads. While the threat from inside parliament has subsided owing to the opposition's disarray, challenges from outside the legislative chamber, on the streets and in the court of public opinion are likely to intensify.
Tensions will mount as regime holds on
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 01/12/2017
» After the most recent cabinet reshuffle produced the fifth line-up of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's government, it is clear the military intends to stay in power for the long term in one form or another. The reshuffle provided a more civilian look but let there be no doubt that Thailand still has a military government, led by generals who seized power more than three and a half years ago. As the top brass perpetuates its rule and puts off the election as long as they can, political tensions will mount as civilian-led forces agitate for a share of power and a return to popular rule.
The time and need for civilians in cabinet
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/12/2016
» In view of the royal transition that has transpired, Thailand's interim period since its military coup in May 2014 has now entered a new phase. When the military seized power back then, the Thai public largely put up with what became a military dictatorship, spearheaded by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha as prime minister and leader of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). This rough bargain, whereby the military stepped in to be the midwife of the royal transition, has passed. It is time to recalibrate and prepare for a return to popular rule by placing more civilian technocrats in government in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle.