Showing 1 - 10 of 39
Thailand's era of economic stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/07/2024
» After two decades of political instability and turmoil, it was a matter of time before the Thai economy would exhibit signs of distress and desperation. For decades, the Thai economy has proved resilient with an uncanny knack for bouncing back. But Teflon Thailand may have become a thing of the past. Headlines on the Thai economy have been heading south precipitously. Unless fundamental political reforms take place, Thailand will likely enter a period of low and plateaued growth with risks of grinding stagnation.
Thailand's Brics move is misguided
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/06/2024
» There are two main explanations behind Thailand's application to join the Brics group, initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
No losers, two winners in Taiwan poll
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/01/2024
» Among elections in Asia this year, Taiwan's is no less consequential, not just for the island country's political future but also for the United States-China rivalry and broader geopolitics. In the event, the results from the Jan 13 general election in Taiwan ended up with no major losers among the main contenders and two big wins for democracy in Asia and the geopolitical status quo.
Japan's dilemmas need bold answers
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/11/2023
» Among the big countries vying for power and influence in the fluid and contentious geostrategic arena, Japan faces the most daunting challenges. Most of the recognised major powers in Asia, from China and India to Indonesia and South Korea, are rising and aspiring for bigger roles and grander objectives, while Japan's place in the global pecking order has been in decline. The last time Japan had to confront such an existential threat to its place in the world may have been in the 1860s when the Western powers shook up and threatened to take over the isolated and inward-looking martial society.
Global, regional, local trends for 2023
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/12/2022
» Although economic predictions are usually reserved for the foolhardy, as the future is always difficult to ascertain, there are certain trend lines and probabilities that can be discerned at the global and regional level as well as the local level here in Thailand. As a year-end exercise, we can tease out a few contours with a reasonably high degree of probability.
Next poll brings highest stakes, risks
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/12/2022
» In the face of the myriad of questions and issues that beset Thai politics in the lead-up to the general election, which must be held by May 7, the biggest facts and dilemmas are not being raised. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is now headed to complete nine years in office, the first five of which were under a military government after he and his cohorts seized power by force in May 2014, and the last four under an elected coalition government enabled by the 2017 constitution crafted by a committee the ruling generals had set up. Moving forward, Thailand risks settling into a prolonged period of economic stagnation and political decay unless there is a qualitative change of government after the poll.
Geopolitical takeaways from SEA meets
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 25/11/2022
» Southeast Asia's summit season has come and gone with takeaways that concurrently eased geopolitical tensions and underlined risks that could lead to future global conflict. The three major summits -- the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Phnom Penh, the G20 in Bali, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) in Bangkok -- also demonstrated that the Covid-19 pandemic over 2020-21 has been practically overcome as in-person meetings are back in full force. Overall, the three hosts came away with mixed highlights.
Global politics in dangerous territory
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/09/2022
» While Russia's profound and transformational invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 has fundamentally reshaped and reinforced contentious trends and contours in the geopolitics and geoeconomics of Asia, it did not set out a new direction in world politics. The international system had already been unravelling over the past decade, underpinned by the United States-China geostrategic rivalry and competition. Given deteriorating patterns and trends, the international environment is entering dangerous territory where what seemed unthinkable not long ago may soon appear to be very conceivable indeed.
Japan's post-Covid regional dilemma
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/01/2022
» Among the major powers that are moving forward with an eye on the post-pandemic era, when Covid-19 will eventually become an endemic with flu-like manageability, Japan is second to none. The visit last week by its minister of economy, trade, and industry (METI), Koichi Hagiuda, made front-page news in Bangkok, following similarly notable media coverage in Jakarta and Singapore. But while it has played a critical role in Asean's economic development and regional security, Japan's Indo-Pacific geostrategic environment has become adverse with more downside risks.
Govt ducks Asean Myanmar challenge
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/04/2021
» Asean's highly anticipated "special" summit tomorrow in Jakarta on Myanmar's crisis can be declared moot on arrival. What goes into it is likely more telling that what will come out of it. Nearly three months and more than 730 civilian deaths after Myanmar's military coup on Feb 1, Asean is still unable to address its rogue member state's atrocities against its own people. The summit attendance foretells trends and dynamics of what might come next in Myanmar's fast-moving and deadly events on the ground and how they will shape regional responses and global concerns.