Showing 1 - 10 of 45
2026 outlook calls for recalibration
News, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 17/01/2026
» For global markets, 2025 was defined as much by what did not happen as by what did. The year offered a masterclass in the power of a single narrative, with massive, concentrated bets on AI masking various other unanswered questions. Yet as we move further into 2026, the AI narrative is unlikely to prove strong enough to continue overshadowing other lingering uncertainties, many of which reflect deeper structural shifts. For investors, central banks, and governments alike, the situation demands adaptation.
Somaliland: Mixed motivations
News, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 03/01/2026
» Last week Israel was the first country in the world to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland. Not Somalia, a wreck of a country on the East African coast that has been mired in civil war for the past thirty-five years, but Somaliland, a different country just north of there that has been peaceful, relatively prosperous and even democratic for all those years.
Another day, another massacre
News, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 08/11/2025
» The ceasefire in Gaza, however shaky, is freeing up some bandwidth for the world's media to fret about other ongoing massacres, and UN Secretary General António Guterres wasted no time in turning the spotlight on Sudan. "The horrifying crisis in Sudan … is spiralling out of control," he said on Monday -- but he didn't explain why.
Rethinking development in an era of upheaval
News, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 14/08/2025
» For many developing countries, the global economic landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. Lower growth, disrupted supply chains, reduced aid flows, and heightened financial-market volatility represent significant headwinds. Underpinning these changes is a fundamental restructuring, driven by the developed world, of the postwar economic and financial order. Against this background, a handful of factors are becoming critically important for the current and future well-being of developing countries -- and for the fate of multilateral institutions.
Nuclear proliferation cannot be bombed away
News, Mohamed ElBaradei, Published on 05/07/2025
» In 1966, the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China not only were the only countries that possessed nuclear weapons; they also had enough wisdom to recognise the dangers posed by nuclear proliferation. Despite their many and deep political differences, they arrived at a consensus to halt the further dissemination of "nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices".
Where is US economic policy taking us this time?
Oped, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Published on 29/05/2025
» Although this year is not even half over, it is already likely to feature in history books as one of extreme policy-induced volatility -- not only in financial markets but also in terms of economic narratives and international relations. But where it will lead remains to be seen. Are we witnessing the fragmenting of the US domestic and international order, or just a bumpy ride towards a beneficial rewiring of both?
Sudan's hell of devastation and despair
Oped, John J. Metzler, Published on 24/04/2025
» The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are stalking Sudan: brutal civil conflict, widespread devastation, humanitarian disasters, and the displacement of millions of refugees. Now add the Fifth Horseman, the darkness of global indifference.
Sudan's war and the Africa we don't see
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 19/04/2025
» Last Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: "Many have given up on Sudan, but that is wrong. It's morally wrong when we see so many civilians beheaded, infants as young as one subjected to sexual violence, more people facing famine than anywhere else in the world.... We simply cannot look away."
A baseline scenario for the global economy
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 28/12/2024
» It is something of a tradition every December to take stock of the year that is ending and consider what might lie ahead. This is true on a personal level: in my family, we tend to do this around the dinner table. But it is also true more broadly, with the time of year inviting an examination of the intersection of economics, national politics, and global geopolitics.
Forecast fizzles
Oped, Postbag, Published on 10/12/2024
» Re: "SET poised to witness volatile first half in 2025", (Business, Dec 4) & "World faces prospect of financial tumult", (Opinion, March 23, 2023).