Showing 1 - 6 of 6
China needs to resolve its underlying data discrepancy
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 24/09/2018
» China's economic data, never easy to track in the best of times, has become almost indecipherable in 2018. While the headline numbers on GDP growth, retail sales and debt tell reassuring stories that (unsurprisingly) match government objectives, the underlying statistics paint a very different picture. What does this tell us about the state of the economy?
China may soon kill micro-lending, but it shouldn't
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/11/2017
» In their bid to reduce risk, China's financial regulators are cracking down on a promising business: online micro-lending. Although the industry has some serious problems, killing it off would be a big mistake.
Could China be close to recession?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 02/06/2017
» For the first time, China is facing a dreaded prospect: the inverted bond yield curve. The phenomenon, in which long-term interest rates sink below short-term interest rates, has caused some consternation among market-watchers, who know it's traditionally a harbinger of recession. The inversion suggests markets expect interest rates to fall eventually as monetary authorities move to stimulate economic activity.
Guidance on risk in China in 2017
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/12/2016
» Each December, China's leaders meet to lay out their economic agenda for the next year. And each December, China-watchers pore over their every word, much like Kremlinologists during the Cold War. It bears remembering that these pronouncements are rarely predictive, and that the best sources of insight on China's economy are usually found elsewhere. Here are a few key points to keep in mind next year.
Here's why GDP is China's most illusory indicator
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/09/2016
» Among investors and economists who study China, few arguments are more contentious than growth -- more specifically, how to measure it. Officially, China's economy has been growing at an annualised rate of nearly 10% for the past three decades. But plenty of analysts will argue that those figures are highly optimistic.
How China made itself prone to bubbles
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 10/05/2016
» Chinese markets have rarely looked more like Vegas casinos. In recent weeks, investors have driven up trading volumes in China to astronomical levels, betting on everything from rebar to eggs. China traded enough steel in one day last month to build 178,082 Eiffel Towers and enough cotton to make at least one pair of jeans for every person on the planet.