Showing 1 - 10 of 14
Fanatics, an obsessive, and a belligerent fool
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 07/04/2026
» We don't have to look very far to find a useful historical analogy for the current crisis in the Middle East. In 1967, Egypt closed the Strait of Tiran to Israeli ships, and Israel replied with a surprise air attack that destroyed almost the entire Egyptian air force on the ground.
Several bad options for US in Iran standoff
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 01/04/2026
» The Iranians know they have won, but President Trump doesn't get it yet. He's still at the stage of counting up the US and Israeli air strikes and assuming that those numbers mean a US victory is possible. But five gets you ten that the Iranians are already thinking about nuclear weapons. Not their own, which don't exist. America's.
Iran war: One miscalculation after another
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 24/03/2026
» Still not four full weeks into the war, and already Donald Trump's "short-term excursion" -- decapitate the Iranian regime with a surprise attack and impose harsh terms on the defeated survivors -- has morphed into a global economic crisis and a region-wide war that could destroy the wealth of all the countries on both sides of the Gulf. At the very least.
Netanyahu's long game ensnares Trump
News, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 14/03/2026
» Donald Trump is caught in the trap that he helped to build, and he is starting to flail against his fate. His "war of choice", "Operation Epic Fury", was supposed to end in "unconditional surrender" by Tehran in just a few weeks, but if Mr Trump ever had a plan beyond "use massive force", it isn't working.
Kingdom of Denmark vs the Shadow Fleet
News, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 25/10/2025
» Back in the 16th and 17th centuries, two-thirds of the Danish kingdom's income came from taxes paid by every ship passing through the Øresund ('The Sound') Strait, the only exit from the Baltic Sea. Each ship had to declare its cargo -- and if the Danes thought they were undervaluing it, Denmark had the right to buy it at the declared price.
Lets hope Trump takes sensible Greenland path
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 06/02/2025
» The Strait of Malacca is strategically important. It's the shortest shipping route between the Far East and the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. It handles a quarter of all internationally traded goods, and if anybody tried to block it there would be a war.
The bigger game: Israel and Saudi Arabia vs Iran
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 22/06/2024
» Gaza, IDF, Hamas, Mr Netanyahu, famine, terrorism, genocide, and on and on: the loud, incessant clatter of local issues and tactical moves almost drowns out the low, grinding noise as the Middle East shifts inexorably into a new strategic alignment. But it's happening, and it's still about oil, sort of.
Ukraine: Where next after fight to take Kherson?
News, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 16/11/2022
» The recovery of the city of Kherson is the third big victory for the Ukrainian armed forces in three months: first, the reconquest of all of Kharkiv Oblast in September, then the partial destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Crimea with Russia in October, and now the liberation of Kherson. So where next?
Ukraine: lessons for Taiwan, and for China too
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 23/03/2022
» Almost a month in, China is still being extremely coy about its attitude towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The regime is acutely aware that there are many parallels between the Russian-Ukrainian relationship and the Chinese-Taiwanese one, and that the Russian attempt to conquer Ukraine is failing, or at least stalled.
Will China actually ever invade Taiwan?
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 13/10/2021
» China's President Xi Jinping promised on Saturday that "The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland... will definitely be fulfilled." That was a threat to Taiwan, but a threat without a deadline. However Chinese state media, in the form of the ever-rabid Global Times, warned that war "could be triggered at any time".