Showing 1 - 10 of 14
Bad jobs data could end up biting China
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 21/02/2019
» China has long been criticised both for its obsession with GDP statistics and their quality: Pressuring cadres to meet growth targets has encouraged a risky buildup of debt and, at times, outright fabrication of numbers. If anything, though, the quality of China's official employment data is even worse -- and the inaccuracies could have equally dangerous repercussions.
China to choose between debt growth or development
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 18/12/2018
» China's top leaders meet this week in Beijing to set economic policy objectives for the coming year. The central question is whether they will do what they want or what the country needs.
China needs to resolve its underlying data discrepancy
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 24/09/2018
» China's economic data, never easy to track in the best of times, has become almost indecipherable in 2018. While the headline numbers on GDP growth, retail sales and debt tell reassuring stories that (unsurprisingly) match government objectives, the underlying statistics paint a very different picture. What does this tell us about the state of the economy?
Tax cuts feed China's consumption
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 22/06/2018
» It's tempting to view China's changes to the personal and corporate tax code in the context of US trade tensions. The reforms are really aimed more at Beijing's concerns about competitiveness and economic rebalancing, and ultimately the creation of a "moderately prosperous society".
Beijing places its bets on more state economic control
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/12/2017
» As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it's worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week's meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing "supply-side reform" campaign.
China may soon kill micro-lending, but it shouldn't
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/11/2017
» In their bid to reduce risk, China's financial regulators are cracking down on a promising business: online micro-lending. Although the industry has some serious problems, killing it off would be a big mistake.
Chinese companies can stand a lot more sunlight
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 04/07/2017
» For all their national pride and natural boosterism, Chinese officials don't seem to think much of their own companies. Regulators have sought to limit everything from high-speed trading to short-selling, arguing Chinese firms can't yet handle the vagaries of modern financial markets. They're particularly leery of greater transparency, for fear of what might be exposed. Only last week, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) was accused of secretly tipping off key banks to dump bonds of companies that were under investigation.
Alibaba may well have met its match in America
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 20/06/2017
» Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, already the largest Chinese firm by market capitalisation, is nothing if not ambitious. Its chief financial officer, Maggie Wu, recently told investors she expects revenue to rise by up to 49% next year, a staggering prospect. But perhaps more staggering is how Alibaba hopes to get there: In part, by tapping the US market.
Could China be close to recession?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 02/06/2017
» For the first time, China is facing a dreaded prospect: the inverted bond yield curve. The phenomenon, in which long-term interest rates sink below short-term interest rates, has caused some consternation among market-watchers, who know it's traditionally a harbinger of recession. The inversion suggests markets expect interest rates to fall eventually as monetary authorities move to stimulate economic activity.
China stems outflows, but what's next?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 12/04/2017
» Is China finally making headway in its battle against currency outflows? On the surface, yes: People's Bank of China foreign exchange reserves are effectively unchanged since December at US$3 trillion, and data for February released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed a significant narrowing of net outflows of capital based on international bank settlements and sales.