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OPINION

China to choose between debt growth or development

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 18/12/2018

» China's top leaders meet this week in Beijing to set economic policy objectives for the coming year. The central question is whether they will do what they want or what the country needs.

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OPINION

Tax cuts feed China's consumption

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 22/06/2018

» It's tempting to view China's changes to the personal and corporate tax code in the context of US trade tensions. The reforms are really aimed more at Beijing's concerns about competitiveness and economic rebalancing, and ultimately the creation of a "moderately prosperous society".

OPINION

China stems outflows, but what's next?

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 12/04/2017

» Is China finally making headway in its battle against currency outflows? On the surface, yes: People's Bank of China foreign exchange reserves are effectively unchanged since December at US$3 trillion, and data for February released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed a significant narrowing of net outflows of capital based on international bank settlements and sales.

OPINION

Beware of China's wealth-management reforms

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 07/03/2017

» A major factor behind the soaring growth of risky wealth-management products in China is that investors typically think the government stands behind them. Lately, nervous regulators have been emphasising that this isn't so. But they'll have to do a lot more to change expectations in a state-dominated economy.

OPINION

Guidance on risk in China in 2017

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/12/2016

» Each December, China's leaders meet to lay out their economic agenda for the next year. And each December, China-watchers pore over their every word, much like Kremlinologists during the Cold War. It bears remembering that these pronouncements are rarely predictive, and that the best sources of insight on China's economy are usually found elsewhere. Here are a few key points to keep in mind next year.

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OPINION

Here's why GDP is China's most illusory indicator

News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/09/2016

» Among investors and economists who study China, few arguments are more contentious than growth -- more specifically, how to measure it. Officially, China's economy has been growing at an annualised rate of nearly 10% for the past three decades. But plenty of analysts will argue that those figures are highly optimistic.