Showing 1 - 10 of 17
The end of The Great Moderation
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 28/07/2022
» It could be said that the era of economic normalcy is over. For about two decades before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, we witnessed what economists came to call "The Great Moderation" -- an era of moderate economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates and improved fiscal discipline. The US dollar was relatively weak while other currencies such as the yen, euro, yuan and even the baht appreciated.
Three headwinds for the global economy
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 23/10/2021
» In the past few months or so, several headwinds have emerged in the world economic arena. We have seen a sharp increase in commodity prices, including natural gas, crude oil, and coal, which has reached US$240 a tonne from about $70 last year. The result has been an electricity generation deficit in the biggest emerging economies such as China and India.
Vaccines + stimulus = overheating + inflation?
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 27/02/2021
» Global economic indicators announced recently for the final quarter of last year have confirmed our view that economic recovery is still gaining momentum. Fourth-quarter GDP, compared to the previous year, in China, Japan, the United States, Thailand and even the euro zone continued to recover from the strongest contraction in decades in the second quarter.
The future is bright, is it not?
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 23/01/2021
» From an economic perspective, most of the current figures continue to look worse, especially in developed economies including the United States. The US job market, retail sales and real estate figures have deteriorated for the first time since last April.
What the new wave of Covid could mean
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 26/12/2020
» As we all know, the number of new Covid-19 cases in Thailand has skyrocketed after months of calm, breaking a single-day record last Saturday and causing authorities to issue urgent control measures, especially in Samut Sakhon.
Light at the end of the tunnel could be a train
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 28/11/2020
» After nearly a year of unexpected global economic and investment derailment, we are beginning to see a glimpse of hope from a new and stable US president and the approaching availability of one or more vaccines that will put an end to the pandemic.
2021: No clear path out of the abyss
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 24/10/2020
» As 2020 starts drawing to a close, it is constructive to look towards the year ahead. Given how miserable and uncertain 2020 has been, it is only natural that many of us will be looking forward to a brighter New Year.
Be careful of the turning tide
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 09/09/2020
» As we expected, the global and Thai economies have reached low points not seen in decades and have begun to recover gradually in recent weeks. But in terms of investing, we are beginning to see a significant shift in the theme.
Is this the turning point?
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 25/07/2020
» In our last column we warned about the great uncertainties surrounding the divergence of the economic and investment worlds, and how they may converge due to the rise of those uncertainties. It is possible that we may begin to see a turning point this month.
The world after Covid
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 27/06/2020
» The second quarter of 2020 has seen a divergence between the investment world and real economic conditions. Despite a recent uptick, the global economy is still contracting: the IMF has just downgraded its global GDP forecast to -4.9% from -3.0%.