Showing 1 - 10 of 13
Where is US economic policy taking us this time?
Oped, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Published on 29/05/2025
» Although this year is not even half over, it is already likely to feature in history books as one of extreme policy-induced volatility -- not only in financial markets but also in terms of economic narratives and international relations. But where it will lead remains to be seen. Are we witnessing the fragmenting of the US domestic and international order, or just a bumpy ride towards a beneficial rewiring of both?
Supporting Ukraine is in Donald Trump's interest
Oped, Michael Froman & Charles A Kupchan, Published on 02/01/2025
» Even before taking office, Donald Trump has launched a diplomatic effort to end Russia's war against Ukraine, calling for an "immediate ceasefire" after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris in early December.
A baseline scenario for the global economy
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 28/12/2024
» It is something of a tradition every December to take stock of the year that is ending and consider what might lie ahead. This is true on a personal level: in my family, we tend to do this around the dinner table. But it is also true more broadly, with the time of year inviting an examination of the intersection of economics, national politics, and global geopolitics.
Once again, it was the economy, stupid
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 15/11/2024
» 'It's the economy, stupid!" This famous mantra, coined by the political strategist James Carville, helped Bill Clinton unseat President George H W Bush in 1992, and now it explains another election. The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris, and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.
Moving towards a fifth world order
Oped, Gordon Brown & Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 26/10/2024
» The Bretton Woods institutions -- the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank -- are now 80 years old. But they are as under-resourced and poorly supported by national governments as at any time in their history. Their predicament is perhaps the clearest sign that economic and financial multilateralism is fragmenting along with the global economy. Worse, this fragmentation comes at a time of rising international tensions, financial fragility, sputtering growth, rising poverty, and mounting reconstruction bills in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, and elsewhere.
The future of Bangkok-Dhaka ties
Oped, S A Korobi, Published on 25/04/2024
» With Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina having arrived in Bangkok to attend the eightieth session of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (Escap) from April 24-29, the stage is set for Bangladesh and Thailand to embark on a journey of enhanced cooperation.
Don't rely on last year's trends for global economy
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 16/01/2024
» Behavioural economists have popularised the term "recency bias" to describe our tendency to be disproportionately influenced by the latest events compared to earlier ones. Could this cognitive phenomenon explain why numerous analysts have a rather optimistic tilt for the world economy in 2024? Or are there really positive trends counterbalancing the obvious and mounting challenges to global growth?
The growing risk of global disorder
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 26/12/2023
» The Western-led global economic order had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated. Instead, it was internal stress that led to more doubts around the world about its effectiveness and legitimacy.
The five main drivers of uncertainty
Oped, Mohamed A El-Erian, Published on 02/11/2023
» Businesses, governments, and investors were already navigating a foggy global landscape before the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East. But the horrible conflict between Hamas and Israel, which has already led to enormous suffering and claimed the lives of thousands of civilians, including so many children, has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for the global economy, the subject of this commentary.
Saudi is swinging again, but for how long?
Oped, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Published on 08/06/2022
» Fluctuating Chinese demand has contributed to this year’s volatility in international oil prices. But the latest evolution on the supply side will have immediate geopolitical and financial implications that go well beyond the oil market. Specifically, Saudi Arabia has returned as the most important swing producer and thus the most influential marginal pricesetter. But how long this situation will last is unclear.