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» We live in stirring times. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has crossed the monetary policy Rubicon and cut one of the euro zone’s key interest rates into negative territory. This is dramatic stuff, as even the most economically oblivious are likely to recognise that negative interest rates are a radical policy. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is gracefully gliding out of its quantitative policy position, and by October that money-printing process is likely to be effectively at an end. The question from most investors is therefore “what next for US monetary policy?” The answer is likely to be an increase in US interest rates, and those increases may start earlier and take place faster than many investors currently assume. The Bank of England has been even more explicit in signalling a desire to tighten interest rates sooner than financial investors had expected.
» Several emerging market central banks have been forced to react to market events already this year. Interest rate increases in India, Turkey and South Africa followed bond or currency market volatility. Argentina has endured dramatic moves in its currency, and Brazil has been forced to tighten policy.
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