Showing 1-10 of 13 results
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How China made itself prone to bubbles
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 10/05/2016
» Chinese markets have rarely looked more like Vegas casinos. In recent weeks, investors have driven up trading volumes in China to astronomical levels, betting on everything from rebar to eggs. China traded enough steel in one day last month to build 178,082 Eiffel Towers and enough cotton to make at least one pair of jeans for every person on the planet.
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Here's why GDP is China's most illusory indicator
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/09/2016
» Among investors and economists who study China, few arguments are more contentious than growth -- more specifically, how to measure it. Officially, China's economy has been growing at an annualised rate of nearly 10% for the past three decades. But plenty of analysts will argue that those figures are highly optimistic.
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Guidance on risk in China in 2017
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/12/2016
» Each December, China's leaders meet to lay out their economic agenda for the next year. And each December, China-watchers pore over their every word, much like Kremlinologists during the Cold War. It bears remembering that these pronouncements are rarely predictive, and that the best sources of insight on China's economy are usually found elsewhere. Here are a few key points to keep in mind next year.
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Beware of China's wealth-management reforms
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 07/03/2017
» A major factor behind the soaring growth of risky wealth-management products in China is that investors typically think the government stands behind them. Lately, nervous regulators have been emphasising that this isn't so. But they'll have to do a lot more to change expectations in a state-dominated economy.
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China stems outflows, but what's next?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 12/04/2017
» Is China finally making headway in its battle against currency outflows? On the surface, yes: People's Bank of China foreign exchange reserves are effectively unchanged since December at US$3 trillion, and data for February released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed a significant narrowing of net outflows of capital based on international bank settlements and sales.
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Could China be close to recession?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 02/06/2017
» For the first time, China is facing a dreaded prospect: the inverted bond yield curve. The phenomenon, in which long-term interest rates sink below short-term interest rates, has caused some consternation among market-watchers, who know it's traditionally a harbinger of recession. The inversion suggests markets expect interest rates to fall eventually as monetary authorities move to stimulate economic activity.
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Alibaba may well have met its match in America
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 20/06/2017
» Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, already the largest Chinese firm by market capitalisation, is nothing if not ambitious. Its chief financial officer, Maggie Wu, recently told investors she expects revenue to rise by up to 49% next year, a staggering prospect. But perhaps more staggering is how Alibaba hopes to get there: In part, by tapping the US market.
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Chinese companies can stand a lot more sunlight
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 04/07/2017
» For all their national pride and natural boosterism, Chinese officials don't seem to think much of their own companies. Regulators have sought to limit everything from high-speed trading to short-selling, arguing Chinese firms can't yet handle the vagaries of modern financial markets. They're particularly leery of greater transparency, for fear of what might be exposed. Only last week, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) was accused of secretly tipping off key banks to dump bonds of companies that were under investigation.
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China may soon kill micro-lending, but it shouldn't
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/11/2017
» In their bid to reduce risk, China's financial regulators are cracking down on a promising business: online micro-lending. Although the industry has some serious problems, killing it off would be a big mistake.
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Beijing places its bets on more state economic control
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/12/2017
» As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it's worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week's meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing "supply-side reform" campaign.
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