Showing 1-10 of 169 results
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The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
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Myanmar revolts against dictatorship
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/02/2024
» When Myanmar's military coup took place three years ago, few thought it would turn out this way. Never has a military in Southeast Asia staged a successful coup and then failed to consolidate power afterwards. Yet this is precisely what's happening in Myanmar. A fierce and determined coalition of resistance forces is in the process of prevailing over Myanmar's battle-hardened army.
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Prospects at home and abroad in 2024
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/01/2024
» Overlooked but deeply consequential, 2024 will be the first time in a decade that Thailand is ruled by a civilian-led government. Whatever frustration and disenchantment that arise this year, memories must not run short. Thailand suffered deeply under the coup-backed regime of Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. Seeing his back is politically good riddance, and having Srettha Thavisin as a thoroughly civilian and pro-business prime minister bodes well for the country. Yet Mr Srettha has his work cut out to boost the economy, address constitutional reform, restore Thailand's international standing, and stay in office into next year amid the global economic slowdown.
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Asian elections, democracy in 2024
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/12/2023
» Billed as the biggest election year ever as more than half of the global population goes to the polls, 2024 will be critical to the debate about democratisation and autocratisation. Asia will lead the way with elections in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, while the most recent polls in Myanmar and Thailand offer long-term lessons about democracy and dictatorship. The salient themes next year will be about the self-perpetuating tendencies of incumbent regimes and the resilience of democratic rule when authoritarianism seemed to have the upper hand.
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Thailand's semi-democracy faces risks
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/12/2023
» The government of Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin has settled into an uneasy balance between the civilian-led majority forces that represent the Thai electorate and the royalist-conservative minority guardians of the established centres anchored around the monarchy, military, judiciary, and bureaucracy.
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Thailand's semi-democracy returns
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 01/12/2023
» The appointment of Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha as privy councillor has neatly bookended Thai politics over the past decade. It coincides with the 10-year anniversary of the street demonstrations that were led by the People's Democratic Reform Committee, paving the way for Gen Prayut to stage a military coup in May 2014. While the interim was a period of hard and soft military-authoritarian rule in 2014-19 and 2019-23, the new moving balance in Thai politics is a semi-democracy of sorts under the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition government.
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Japan's dilemmas need bold answers
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/11/2023
» Among the big countries vying for power and influence in the fluid and contentious geostrategic arena, Japan faces the most daunting challenges. Most of the recognised major powers in Asia, from China and India to Indonesia and South Korea, are rising and aspiring for bigger roles and grander objectives, while Japan's place in the global pecking order has been in decline. The last time Japan had to confront such an existential threat to its place in the world may have been in the 1860s when the Western powers shook up and threatened to take over the isolated and inward-looking martial society.
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Tolerating populism for democracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/10/2023
» The so-called “super deal” in August that resulted in the return of Thaksin Shinawatra and the formation of the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition government under Srettha Thavisin evidently has its limitations. It appears to be rejected by sections of the conservative old guard who still wants to resort to extra-parliamentary ways and means to undermine Thailand’s delicate parliamentary democracy. Reminiscent of past protests against Mr Thaksin’s brand of populism, a new round of extra-parliamentary political movement has begun in earnest with the petition launched by 99 prominent economists, including former central bank governors, against the Srettha government’s 10,000-baht digital wallet policy.
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Asean role stuck on Myanmar coup
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 25/08/2023
» President Joe Biden's decision to skip Asean-related summits in the Indonesian capital Jakarta on Sept 5-7 in favour of the G-20 leaders' meeting in India just two days later has been greeted with howls of disappointment and criticism around Southeast Asian capitals and elsewhere that are concerned about America's role in the region.
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The post-election showdown explained
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/07/2023
» Thai politics will finally reach its climax with a parliamentary vote for the next prime minister on July 13 and the emergence of a coalition government soon thereafter. How things pan out will depend on the extent of "what you see is what you get" or otherwise.
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