Showing 1-10 of 11 results

  • News & article

    Bad jobs data could end up biting China

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 21/02/2019

    » China has long been criticised both for its obsession with GDP statistics and their quality: Pressuring cadres to meet growth targets has encouraged a risky buildup of debt and, at times, outright fabrication of numbers. If anything, though, the quality of China's official employment data is even worse -- and the inaccuracies could have equally dangerous repercussions.

  • News & article

    China needs to resolve its underlying data discrepancy

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 24/09/2018

    » China's economic data, never easy to track in the best of times, has become almost indecipherable in 2018. While the headline numbers on GDP growth, retail sales and debt tell reassuring stories that (unsurprisingly) match government objectives, the underlying statistics paint a very different picture. What does this tell us about the state of the economy?

  • News & article

    Chinese savers won't save China

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 09/07/2018

    » Chinese are, in the popular imagination as well as some economic statistics, inveterate savers. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Chinese savings rate stood at an astonishing 46% in 2016, compared to a global average around 25%. Chinese planners have long sought to bring that ratio down in order to promote consumption and ease the economy's overreliance on investment. If only Chinese would shop more, the thinking goes, China wouldn't need to rely on smokestack factories and boondoggle infrastructure projects to drive growth.

  • News & article

    Beijing places its bets on more state economic control

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/12/2017

    » As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it's worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week's meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing "supply-side reform" campaign.

  • News & article

    China isn't quite ready to take over the world just yet

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 05/12/2017

    » Almost daily, newspapers in the US, Europe and China release eye-catching headlines about China's technological advances and economic prowess. The accomplishments are real. But they're not necessarily evidence of Western failure or Chinese invincibility.

  • News & article

    China may soon kill micro-lending, but it shouldn't

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/11/2017

    » In their bid to reduce risk, China's financial regulators are cracking down on a promising business: online micro-lending. Although the industry has some serious problems, killing it off would be a big mistake.

  • News & article

    Beijing's major economic risk could be education

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 21/11/2017

    » Chinese President Xi Jinping recently laid out a bold vision for transforming his country into a fully developed economy by 2050, with a particular emphasis on spurring innovation and technology. Given China's current level of human capital -- and some looming changes in the world economy -- that may be harder than he expects.

  • News & article

    Could China be close to recession?

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 02/06/2017

    » For the first time, China is facing a dreaded prospect: the inverted bond yield curve. The phenomenon, in which long-term interest rates sink below short-term interest rates, has caused some consternation among market-watchers, who know it's traditionally a harbinger of recession. The inversion suggests markets expect interest rates to fall eventually as monetary authorities move to stimulate economic activity.

  • News & article

    China stems outflows, but what's next?

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 12/04/2017

    » Is China finally making headway in its battle against currency outflows? On the surface, yes: People's Bank of China foreign exchange reserves are effectively unchanged since December at US$3 trillion, and data for February released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed a significant narrowing of net outflows of capital based on international bank settlements and sales.

  • News & article

    Guidance on risk in China in 2017

    News, Christopher Balding, Published on 30/12/2016

    » Each December, China's leaders meet to lay out their economic agenda for the next year. And each December, China-watchers pore over their every word, much like Kremlinologists during the Cold War. It bears remembering that these pronouncements are rarely predictive, and that the best sources of insight on China's economy are usually found elsewhere. Here are a few key points to keep in mind next year.

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