• OPINION

  Rebalancing China is possible, but at what cost?

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 19/02/2014

  » In November, China’s new leaders spelled out the reform agenda, which is a key product of the so-called Third Plenum. The stated reforms are extensive, comprising some 21,500 words; the objective is to put China in the A-league. Specifically, China aims to double its GDP per capita by 2020 — securing its status as the world’s largest economy, just before the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2021.

• OPINION

  Economic prosperity beckons for Laos in the AEC era

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 21/05/2014

  » An interesting neighbour? Most people would immediately assume it’s Myanmar. While we cannot ignore the glittering promise of Myanmar’s emergence, I have noticed more and more that Laos is quietly becoming a force to be reckoned with as we enter the AEC era.

• OPINION

  Hard truths behind our faltering exports

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 16/07/2014

  » Thai exports have suffered a great fall. Exports contracted by 0.3% in 2013, and for the first five months of this year, shrank further 1.2% year-on-year. This is particularly alarming, as global trade has started picking up since the beginning of this year.

• OPINION

  Three strategies for long-term growth

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 22/10/2014

  » Recent discussion of Thailand's big reform push has focused on issues of social stability. However, the economic fundamentals also need serious — if not more urgent — attention, given the economy's remarkably weak performance over the past seven years.

• OPINION

  Connecting with Thai 'Gen Y' consumers

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 19/11/2014

  » It is quite unique for Thailand to be caught in the middle of two demographic megatrends.

• OPINION

  Cheap oil alone cannot grease the economy

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 21/01/2015

  » Crude oil prices have more than halved since July, with a dramatic drop towards the end of 2014 as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) refused to curb output. The Thai equity market tumbled because energy stocks contribute as much as 20% to the SET Index market capitalisation. But most other sectors remained flat and there are a few sectors like consumer and transportation stocks that actually emerged as winners.

• OPINION

  Slow growth is a small price for reform

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 18/02/2015

  » The Thai economy has gained little traction in recent months. Despite the restoration of confidence and the clearing of many legislative bottlenecks since the middle of last year, GDP growth still came in at just 0.7% in 2014. Nor have we seen any big return of momentum in domestic consumption or investment. Even during the recent New Year festivities, consumer spending was weak, despite the long holiday period. There isn't much to celebrate on the economic front.

• OPINION

  Mega-investment is no longer a choice

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 27/01/2016

  » As the year of the monkey kicks off, anxiety abounds. For the first time in nearly half a century, no single economic power enjoys bullish prospects. In the 1980s, Japan was at the height of its "miracle" with record salaries and employment. In the 1990s, the United States rode the success of rapid technological change that created waves of new jobs as well as the dot com bubble. At the turn of the millennium, the European Union was exuberant with the promise of growth driven by a streamlined internal market and single currency. Then China's accession to the World Trade Organisation helped it re-emerge as one of the world's great economic powers, marching briskly forward even during the global financial crisis of 2008. Today, there is no comparable big winner.

• OPINION

  Megaprojects provide stimulus and long-term gains

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 17/02/2016

  » The volatility in global financial markets has recently picked up again on the back of a series of mediocre economic data across the globe. Poor results for Thai exports in 2015 could very well extend further, putting a spotlight on the need for public investment more than ever. Without a doubt, the cabinet will be called upon to churn out the public infrastructure projects as promised.

• OPINION

  Thailand must prepare for challenges ahead

  News, Sutapa Amornvivat, Published on 18/05/2016

  » In February, I discussed, with cautious optimism, the reality of our transport megaprojects and the sizeable impact on businesses. In particular, the service sector would subsequently flourish. As urbanisation accelerates from better connectivity, property and retail developments will quickly follow. Tourism businesses will expand to these new urban cities. Relatively new service businesses, such as transport maintenance, would be established in key junctions and pit-stops, as trains, planes and ships multiply.

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