Showing 1 - 10 of 93
Indonesia leads Asean into Brics+
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/01/2025
» As the new year gets underway with the looming re-inauguration of United States President Donald J Trump, countries and entire regions are having to manoeuvre and realign in view of an accelerated breakdown of the post-Second World War rules-based liberal international order.
A backdrop to Trump's stunning win
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 08/11/2024
» Analysts often face the tough task of assessing an outcome the way it is rather than how they would like it to be. Nowhere is this challenge more daunting than analysing the stunning election results in the United States this week. Against the odds, former President Donald J Trump of the Republican Party has resoundingly won a second term over Vice President Kamala D Harris of the Democratic Party both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. The Republican Party also captured the Senate and the House of Representatives. While the implications for Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia are wide-ranging and far-reaching, it is first and foremost necessary to understand the nature of the Trump victory.
Two issues at stake in US president race
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 01/11/2024
» As the quadrennial presidential contest in the United States reaches its conclusion next week, the two fundamental and entwined issues at stake are how America sees itself at home and how its consequent role abroad ought to be. This is not the first time these soul-searching questions are determining who gets to rule the country, but they are a recent phenomenon. Beyond them, the rest are merely theatre, money, and manoeuvres that underpin any major election spectacle.
Uncharted territory and a case of déjà vu
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/08/2024
» Another dissolution of another election winner should feel old in Thai politics. But what happened to Move Forward Party is not just déjà vu but uncharted territory. Its dissolution fits a recurrent pattern of systematic subversion of democratic institutions in favour of autocratic preferences in disregard of the will of the majority. The Constitutional Court's breakup of Move Forward also breaks new ground that is increasingly taking centre stage in Thailand's political landscape.
Thailand's spreading rot of irregularity
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/07/2024
» The rot in Thailand's institutional makeup has become so deep, dense and widespread that it can be found nearly everywhere there is controversy. Newly elected Senator Keskamol Pleansamai is the latest case in point. Just about everything that comes with her meteoric rise to the Senate spurs accusations of irregularity and impropriety.
Thailand's era of economic stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/07/2024
» After two decades of political instability and turmoil, it was a matter of time before the Thai economy would exhibit signs of distress and desperation. For decades, the Thai economy has proved resilient with an uncanny knack for bouncing back. But Teflon Thailand may have become a thing of the past. Headlines on the Thai economy have been heading south precipitously. Unless fundamental political reforms take place, Thailand will likely enter a period of low and plateaued growth with risks of grinding stagnation.
Move Forward case reveals autocracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/06/2024
» The Constitutional Court's announcement that it will consider the Move Forward Party's (MFP) written defence in its dissolution case on June 12 appears ominous. After several attempts to make its argument that a campaign pledge to amend the lese majeste law against royal insult is not tantamount to "overthrowing Thailand's democratic regime with the King as head of state", the party's time is up. As the biggest election winner in May 2023, the MFP's dissolution is perceived as a foregone conclusion. Such a revelation might risk Thailand being perceived as an autocratic regime based on legal manoeuvres, and power plays that do not derive from voter preferences.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Thailand's central bank dependence
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/02/2024
» To proponents of central bank independence, the ongoing friction between Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin and Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput appears straightforward. The prime minister is putting unwarranted and unfair pressure on the central bank governor to spur the economy by loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Yet, on closer scrutiny, the entrenched politicisation of central banking in Thailand may suggest otherwise. There is more than meets the eye in the politics of interest rate cuts.
Digital wallet should be implemented
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/02/2024
» The big debate in Thailand's current economic policy planning is whether the economy is facing a crisis or not. The government of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who doubles as finance minister, has contended that there is an economic crisis in dire need of both monetary policy loosening and fiscal stimulus, particularly the 500-billion-baht digital wallet scheme. The Bank of Thailand, supported by a clique of economists apparently critical of the government's "populist" policy measures, asserts otherwise that an economic recovery is in progress without the need to lower the benchmark repurchase rate.