Showing 21 - 30 of 188
Asean/SE Asia and the cycles of history
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 10/06/2022
» The simmering geopolitical tensions between the United States and China and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine have turned the tide of history back to its historical norm. It is easy to see the global stage today as full of tension, confrontation, and conflict in a recurrent fashion. But it is worth recalling that merely 30 years ago, the world was in a different phase where a lasting peace seemed viable.
America, Asean in geostrategic drift
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/05/2022
» As Southeast Asia's renowned regional bloc, Asean has been wanting to have its cake as well as eat it. Its summit meeting with the United States in Washington this week is a testimony to trying to have it both ways. When Washington cares less about Asean, the nominally 10-member grouping frets about the lack of attention and priority. But when the US cares more, some Asean members are sceptical about its intentions and interests. This summit is likely to show that the US and Asean member states are less in line and increasingly unaligned.
Endgame dynamics in Russia's war
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 01/04/2022
» Five weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the tables are turning dramatically amidst the fog of war. As the Ukrainians have stood their ground better than anticipated, the Russians have been put on the back foot. The centre of gravity in the war now appears to be shifting eastward away from Kyiv towards Crimea and the Donbas region. As endgame discussions emerge, all major parties in the conflict are behoved to arrive at a viable settlement and common denominator without overplaying their hands.
Russia's war causes regional disarray
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/03/2022
» President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine from Feb 24 is deeply consequential for Southeast Asia, both as a region and Asean as a regional organisation. Even though this region is relatively far away from the cut and thrust of Russia's war in Ukraine, Asean has already encountered new internal divisions stemming from the raging conflict in Europe. As a result, Asean's age-old approach of consensus will likely become more problematic in the search for new and more effective ways of cooperation among like-minded member states.
Early implications of Russia's invasion
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 04/03/2022
» Just one week after his military invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has found some truisms of warfare the hard way. Once war starts, the fog that accompanies it and the friction that it creates lead to unanticipated and unintended outcomes. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, borne out of choice rather than necessity, appears to be dragging on, not the short and swift victory Mr Putin and his military planners might have envisaged. While Russia may still triumph on Ukrainian battlefields, it has lost the war just about everywhere else.
Japan's post-Covid regional dilemma
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/01/2022
» Among the major powers that are moving forward with an eye on the post-pandemic era, when Covid-19 will eventually become an endemic with flu-like manageability, Japan is second to none. The visit last week by its minister of economy, trade, and industry (METI), Koichi Hagiuda, made front-page news in Bangkok, following similarly notable media coverage in Jakarta and Singapore. But while it has played a critical role in Asean's economic development and regional security, Japan's Indo-Pacific geostrategic environment has become adverse with more downside risks.
Implications of Blinken's aborted visit
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/12/2021
» Having skipped Thailand due to a Covid-19 case among his travel delegation, the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken's aborted three-country tour of Southeast Asia has hindered the full projection of President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific geostrategy. Not wrapping up the trip with a visit to Thailand, a mainland Southeast Asia pivot and longstanding US treaty ally, also misses an opportunity to shore up what has been a relative bilateral estrangement. In short, Secretary Blinken's diplomatic foray in Southeast Asia has fallen short for the time being.
The misguided US 'democracy summit'
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 10/12/2021
» The United States government under President Joe Biden is putting up the right fight in a counterproductive way in its online organisation of a "summit for democracy" this week. Much touted since he won the election in November last year, President Biden's summit of democracies has proved controversial, with both good intentions and unintended consequences. The real battleground, as clichés about the benefits and drawbacks of democracy go, is to make the case that popular rule where citizens should have rights and freedoms for their own collective self-determination is ultimately preferable and superior than all other forms of government.
The geopolitics of China's CPTPP move
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/12/2021
» Nowhere is the intersection between geopolitics and geoeconomics more evident than the accession negotiations under the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). At issue are three new applications for accession by the United Kingdom, China, and Taiwan. While the UK's candidacy alters the geographic crux of what has been Asia-Pacific trade liberalisation, China's and Taiwan's entry efforts represent a proxy showdown between the United States-led global order and 75-year-old alliance system versus Beijing's geostrategic ambitions and objectives.
Age-old nature of the 'New Cold War'
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/11/2021
» History is back with a vengeance. Contrary to what proponents of the "end of history" theory said a few decades ago, the ideological struggle of the 20th century between the "free world" versus "the socialist-communist" camp is still ongoing, despite the Cold War ending over three decades ago. The struggle now features the United States-led Western alliance versus the China-centric global network of nations with authoritarian tendencies.