Showing 1 - 10 of 13
Why China's marriage crisis really matters
Oped, Published on 04/04/2025
» New marriages in China reportedly plummeted by one-fifth last year, implying that the official number of births will likely fall from 9.54 million in 2024 to 7.3- 7.8 million in 2025. Thus, while China represents 17.2% of the global population, it will account for less than 6% of births -- comparable to Nigeria.
Could Trump's tariffs help democratise China?
Oped, Published on 18/01/2025
» Assessments of US President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports tend to focus on their likely economic consequences. But the tariffs' impact on China's politics might prove to be far more profound.
Overcapacity in China causing global concern
Oped, Published on 18/09/2024
» Chinese overcapacity is raising concerns worldwide. It is easy to see why: China accounts for nearly one-third of the world's value-added manufacturing, and one-fifth of global manufacturing exports. But there is good reason to believe that the decline of China's manufacturing sector is imminent.
Economy in China is running low on fuel
Oped, Published on 28/12/2023
» Earlier this month, the ratings agency Moody's cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks from a deepening property crisis and a prolonged growth slowdown. In fact, Moody's now predicts that annual economic growth will fall to 4% in 2024 and 2025, before slowing further, to 3.8%, on average, for the rest of the decade. Potential growth will decline to 3.5% by 2030. A major driver of this slowdown will be "weaker demographics".
China, India have fewer people than the UN thinks
Oped, Published on 09/06/2023
» In April, the United Nations estimated that India had overtaken China as the world's most populous country. While the announcement received a great deal of media attention, India's 2024 census will likely reveal that the UN's projections have been vastly overestimated.
Low birthrates hurt China, women to pay the price
Oped, Published on 18/02/2023
» China's population decline, which the Chinese government officially confirmed in January, has led many observers to wonder if the country's current demographic trends threaten its stability.
Beijing has grave dearth of activists
Oped, Published on 16/12/2022
» Protesters recently took to the streets of China's cities in a rare show of political dissent. While the demonstrations are focused largely on the authorities' zero-Covid policy, they have sparked speculation that a pro-democracy movement -- and even a Taiwan-style political transition -- could come next. But this is unlikely, not least because decades of strict family-planning policies have left China with too few young people to join the fight.
Why is China's Uighur population shrinking?
Oped, Published on 22/07/2022
» After becoming the Communist Party of China's (CPC's) chief of Xinjiang province in 2016, Chen Quanguo oversaw a security crackdown that led to a sharp drop in births. Some observers accused China's leadership of committing genocide against the province's mostly Muslim Uighur population through forced sterilisation and abortion. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the allegations as "fake news", arguing that Xinjiang's Uighur population had grown steadily to 12.7 million in 2018, an increase of 25% from 2010 -- and higher than the 14% increase in the province's total population.
China's complex abortion problem
Oped, Published on 20/04/2022
» Recent official pronouncements in China have sparked speculation that tighter restrictions on abortion may be in the offing. Six months ago, the Chinese State Council issued guidelines to lower the number of abortions performed for non-medical reasons. And in February, China's family-planning association announced that the authorities would launch a special abortion intervention campaign to reduce unwanted pregnancies and abortions among teenagers.
Shrinking Asia changing global demographics
Oped, Gwynne Dyer, Published on 26/01/2022
» In the politics of population, the magic number is 2.1.