Showing 1 - 6 of 6
Once again, it was the economy, stupid
Oped, Published on 15/11/2024
» 'It's the economy, stupid!" This famous mantra, coined by the political strategist James Carville, helped Bill Clinton unseat President George H W Bush in 1992, and now it explains another election. The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris, and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.
Moving towards a fifth world order
Oped, Published on 26/10/2024
» The Bretton Woods institutions -- the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank -- are now 80 years old. But they are as under-resourced and poorly supported by national governments as at any time in their history. Their predicament is perhaps the clearest sign that economic and financial multilateralism is fragmenting along with the global economy. Worse, this fragmentation comes at a time of rising international tensions, financial fragility, sputtering growth, rising poverty, and mounting reconstruction bills in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, and elsewhere.
The growing risk of global disorder
Oped, Published on 26/12/2023
» The Western-led global economic order had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated. Instead, it was internal stress that led to more doubts around the world about its effectiveness and legitimacy.
The five main drivers of uncertainty
Oped, Published on 02/11/2023
» Businesses, governments, and investors were already navigating a foggy global landscape before the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East. But the horrible conflict between Hamas and Israel, which has already led to enormous suffering and claimed the lives of thousands of civilians, including so many children, has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for the global economy, the subject of this commentary.
Global rulebook needs a facelift
Oped, Published on 28/09/2023
» After India's G20 summit and the UN General Assembly this month, world leaders next month will attend the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Marrakesh, before heading to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai. But there is little optimism that these summits will deliver meaningful progress in tackling our greatest challenges, not because of any lack of resolve, but because the global rulebook we have been following since the end of World War II is no longer fit for purpose.
Vaccine rollout and the West's credibility crisis
News, Published on 07/06/2021
» With the world trying to recover from the massive economic shock brought by Covid-19, the mishandling of the global vaccine rollout has weakened trust in the international system that emerged after World War II. Combined with memories of the 2008 global financial crisis, which originated in the advanced economies, today's failures are reinforcing suspicions among some countries that the international order may no longer be fit for purpose. The West, in particular, must take these concerns seriously. With no other multilateral system to replace the current one, the only alternative is a scenario of global fragmentation and rising economic, social, and political tensions.