OPINION

If you expect it, it's not a 'Black Swan'

News, Leonid Bershidsky, Published on 11/05/2016

» It's the bread and butter of pundits to speculate what the world might look like after a relatively improbable but potentially disruptive event, like the UK's exit from the European Union or a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election. The perceived probability of these "black swan" events is pretty high, after all, and contingency plans may be in order. It's useful, however, to remember how the author of The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb, framed it in his 2007 book: