Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Policy options for an overvalued baht
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/12/2025
» This is the last article of 2025. I have to thank readers for following my articles throughout the years. I believe I wrote my first article for the Bangkok Post in January 2020. So, it has been a five-year collaboration with the paper. Thank you, Bangkok Post.
Ability to pay key to debt restructuring
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/04/2025
» Last week's earthquake has provided Thais with two valuable lessons. First, Thailand has no national disaster management plan. No government agency seems to have had carefully thought-out plans and procedures to manage the situation. All measures were carried out on an ad-hoc basis. Worse, there appears to be no coordination among various agencies. Thais were left to rely on their own two feet as thousands of Bangkokians had no choice but to walk for hours to their homes when the mass transit railways were shutdown.
Risk of financial crisis creeps ever closer
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 06/02/2025
» When I started writing this article last week, I said to myself: "This might be another article no one will believe." Financial crisis? You must be out of your mind. The situation seems to be under control and it is likely to improve in 2025. After all, the Ministry of Finance has projected GDP growth for this year to be 2.5% to 3.5%, with a base case of 3.0%. No crisis can happen under such healthy growth, surely.
Thaksin's 'vision' might be outdated
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 05/09/2024
» This article is not meant to diminish the brilliance of the spiritual leader of the Pheu Thai Party, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It is to demonstrate that, despite his immense knowledge and vast experience, Thailand's current economic problems are caused by structural deficiencies and cannot be resolved by traditional stimulus measures. One needs a good understanding of economic principles to approach the problems correctly.
Digital wallet scheme hits another snag
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 13/06/2024
» The new financing problem of the 10,000-baht cash handout, commonly known as the Digital Wallet Scheme (DW), has not made much noise in the media. This may be because the government wants this to be a non-issue, but in reality, it is a serious one that could wreck the entire scheme.
Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024
» Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!
Signs of economic slowdown alarming
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/01/2023
» The Thai government, businesses, and citizens are cherishing the news of returning Chinese tourists with the first group of 286 passengers who arrived on Monday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates that 5 million Chinese tourists will visit our country this year, bringing with them 250 billion baht in spending money. I have two comments on this joyful news. Firstly, the ban on the sale of outbound group and package travel imposed by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Jan 27, 2020, is still in effect. There is no telling when this ban will be relaxed or lifted. Second, the mass arrival of Chinese tourists was already factored into the World Bank's GDP growth projections. The Bank projected that the Thai economy would grow by 3.6% in 2023. To achieve such growth, the arrival of 22.4 million foreign tourists, with 6.2 million from China, was assumed.
Thai economic contraction beckons
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/08/2022
» Why does the Thai economy risk facing an economic contraction in the second half of this year? The answer is simple.
Demand destruction the new buzzword
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/08/2022
» On Feb 23, a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the world crude oil price was US$90.60 (3,221 baht) per barrel. Russian oil supply disruption and demand recovery from Covid-19 dragged the crude oil price to almost $120 at the end of May, after the US and European central banks sent strong signals that they would rapidly increase interest rates to contain inflation, despite the cost of a further economic slowdown.
Yuan won't outrank dollar anytime soon
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 07/04/2022
» The issue of the Chinese yuan as a premier international currency has been around for quite some time. Right now, only 3% of international trade transaction is conducted in yuan and, correspondingly, central banks around the world keep only 3% of their international reserves in Yuan. To most, this is quite puzzling as China is the world's second-largest economy with a GDP portion of 13.04% of world GDP and is the world's largest exporter with a global market share of 14.7%.