Showing 1 - 10 of 15
2026 will be a year of debt struggles
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/01/2026
» Forget GDP growth. Forget tourist arrivals. Forget export figures. In 2026, Thailand's overriding economic challenge will not be growth but debt repayment.
Why gold matters in a changing world
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 13/11/2025
» After reading my previous article, "Thailand has become the sick man of Asean", a good friend asked me what would happen to the Thai economy after becoming the sick man?
Making sense of performance figures
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 31/10/2024
» I have the duty of reviewing quarterly economic performances and making economic growth projections for a private research firm.
Stark reality behind economic figures
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/05/2024
» At the time of writing this, the official Q1 GDP has not been announced by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). I expect the growth figure will be around 1.2%. My own estimation, using the Output Approach and actual sectoral production index, gives a growth figure of 0.98%. Detailed data are in the below table.
2024 financial crisis may be a silent one
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 04/04/2024
» When an economy faces a financial crisis, it can create a big bang like the mass collapse of financial institutions such as during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Thai Tum Yum Kung crisis of 1997, the Japanese financial crisis in late 1997, and the US Hamburger crisis of 2008.
Dear Santa: Please send $14 billion
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 02/11/2023
» What Thailand needs is money, money -- and money. The government needs 560 billion baht to run its 10,000 baht cash handout programme next year, and the country needs (at least) 420 billion baht to prevent the 4th quarter economy from collapsing.
Pheu Thai's cash handouts a likely flop
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 24/08/2023
» The title of this article says it all. Pheu Thai Party's flagship economic stimulus policy of handing out 10,000 baht to all Thais aged above 16 years old, with an estimated cost of 560 billion baht, will most likely fail to stimulate (or jump-start) the economy from the recent economic slump.
Pheu Thai's giveaway might just work
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/04/2023
» If one plans to read only one economic analysis article for this year, this is it.
Putting a dampener on Thai recovery
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 26/01/2023
» After three years in which the economy suffered from Covid effects, I am sorry to say that 2023 will not be the year of economic recovery as everyone had hoped. The global economy will still be plagued by inflation threats and several adverse factors such as excessive debt and the Russia-Ukraine war. These negative factors prompted the World Bank to revise its global economic growth prospects downward from 3.0% to 1.7% for 2023. The key point is a marked slowdown from 2.9% growth in 2022.
Signs of economic slowdown alarming
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/01/2023
» The Thai government, businesses, and citizens are cherishing the news of returning Chinese tourists with the first group of 286 passengers who arrived on Monday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates that 5 million Chinese tourists will visit our country this year, bringing with them 250 billion baht in spending money. I have two comments on this joyful news. Firstly, the ban on the sale of outbound group and package travel imposed by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Jan 27, 2020, is still in effect. There is no telling when this ban will be relaxed or lifted. Second, the mass arrival of Chinese tourists was already factored into the World Bank's GDP growth projections. The Bank projected that the Thai economy would grow by 3.6% in 2023. To achieve such growth, the arrival of 22.4 million foreign tourists, with 6.2 million from China, was assumed.