Showing 1 - 10 of 10
Risk of crisis growing more acute
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 05/03/2026
» This article is a follow-up to my previous piece titled "Fiscal deficit will trigger 2026 crisis". In that article, I argued Thailand's heavy dependence on external liquidity, combined with the government's need for 860 billion baht annually to finance its deficits, would lead to a severe liquidity shortage and, ultimately, a financial crisis.
Risk of financial crisis creeps ever closer
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 06/02/2025
» When I started writing this article last week, I said to myself: "This might be another article no one will believe." Financial crisis? You must be out of your mind. The situation seems to be under control and it is likely to improve in 2025. After all, the Ministry of Finance has projected GDP growth for this year to be 2.5% to 3.5%, with a base case of 3.0%. No crisis can happen under such healthy growth, surely.
Stark reality behind economic figures
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/05/2024
» At the time of writing this, the official Q1 GDP has not been announced by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). I expect the growth figure will be around 1.2%. My own estimation, using the Output Approach and actual sectoral production index, gives a growth figure of 0.98%. Detailed data are in the below table.
Liquidity shortage a big risk for govt
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/11/2023
» Liquidity is the most ignored issue in economics. Liquidity is considered to be like "oxygen" which is readily available when needed and, thus, has no intrinsic value.
Pheu Thai's cash handouts a likely flop
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 24/08/2023
» The title of this article says it all. Pheu Thai Party's flagship economic stimulus policy of handing out 10,000 baht to all Thais aged above 16 years old, with an estimated cost of 560 billion baht, will most likely fail to stimulate (or jump-start) the economy from the recent economic slump.
Signs of economic slowdown alarming
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/01/2023
» The Thai government, businesses, and citizens are cherishing the news of returning Chinese tourists with the first group of 286 passengers who arrived on Monday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates that 5 million Chinese tourists will visit our country this year, bringing with them 250 billion baht in spending money. I have two comments on this joyful news. Firstly, the ban on the sale of outbound group and package travel imposed by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Jan 27, 2020, is still in effect. There is no telling when this ban will be relaxed or lifted. Second, the mass arrival of Chinese tourists was already factored into the World Bank's GDP growth projections. The Bank projected that the Thai economy would grow by 3.6% in 2023. To achieve such growth, the arrival of 22.4 million foreign tourists, with 6.2 million from China, was assumed.
A Wuhan lockdown will not work here
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 22/07/2021
» Originally, I planned to write an article titled "Will it be a soft landing or hard landing?" which would have been about the future of the world's financial markets and the economy.
Lessons from the 1997 economic crisis
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/04/2021
» Today is April Fools' day. But there is no fooling about the threat of liquidity crisis. I am sure that many readers are sceptical about the possibility of a liquidity crunch in this country. First, the government debt to GDP ratio is less than 60% which is not high by international standards. Second, Thailand now, unlike in 1997, has adopted a flexible exchange rate system which has a low risk of currency speculation. And, third, the country has international reserves equivalent to 11 months of imports of goods and services which is two times higher than IMF's suggested requirement. How could an economy this good be at risk?
Not looking like Xmas this year, or next
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/12/2020
» Everybody has high hopes for the year 2021. Stock markets seem to think so. The Dow Jones Industrial average started the year at around the 29,000 mark and dropped by one-third to 20,000 when Covid-19 became a global threat in late March. Today, despite the second, third, and fourth rounds of outbreaks around the globe, Dow Jones is approaching the 30,000 mark.
The job of a finance minister...
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 03/09/2020
» The resignation of Finance Minister Predee Daochai is a hot issue right now and I feel compelled to write about it, though I'd rather not discuss the cause -- which could be a combination of problems relating to health, internal disputes, political pressure, workloads, and unsolvable problems. Whatever the problems are, the minister has already made the decision which is gazetted. What's done is done.