Showing 1 - 10 of 13
Thailand must manage debt to progress
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 22/01/2026
» This article may be read as a continuation of my previous piece, Year of the Debt. That article focused mainly on household debt, which has already risen beyond the ability of Thai consumers to repay.
Problems await the new BoT governor
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 04/09/2025
» The first problem incoming Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Vitai Ratanakorn will face is political uncertainty.
Stark reality behind economic figures
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/05/2024
» At the time of writing this, the official Q1 GDP has not been announced by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). I expect the growth figure will be around 1.2%. My own estimation, using the Output Approach and actual sectoral production index, gives a growth figure of 0.98%. Detailed data are in the below table.
Will foreign investors still be wooed?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023
» This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.
Downsides to digital cash handout plan
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 21/09/2023
» I announced in a previous article that today's story would focus on liquidity and debt. But after careful consideration, I have decided to postpone this for another fortnight. The main reason being that I want to wait for the Bank of Thailand's economic data release for August due out on Sept 29.
Why do I smell tom yum kung cooking?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 10/08/2023
» Readers who follow my bi-weekly economic column will have no doubt that the tom yum kung I am referring to is not a traditional Thai soup dish but the financial crisis of 1997.
Thai economic prospects far from rosy
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 09/02/2023
» Logically, one would imagine that 2023 would be a much better year than 2022. Covid is over in every corner of the earth and economic activities resume. The world oil price is below US$80 (2,677 baht) per barrel and inflation is coming down. At the first meeting of 2023, the Fed raises interest rates to merely 25 basis points as opposed to the 50-75 basis points for each meeting in 2022.
How are Thais spending so much now?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/12/2022
» Third-quarter GDP growth for 2022 (Q3/2022) is 4.5% -- substantially higher than the expected 4%. The main driving factor is robust private consumption -- not tourism income -- which expanded 9% in real terms and 15.7% in nominal terms, compared to the same quarter last year. On the surface, this high growth phenomenon may look normal as most Asean countries have enjoyed similar benefits of low Covid infections and pent-up demand. For instance, Malaysia's private consumption also expanded 15.7% in the same third quarter.
World economy downhill from here
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 17/11/2022
» When I planned for this week's article, I wanted to write about the illusions of today's economic picture such as the robust GDP growth in emerging economies, declining inflation rates, booming travel business, strengthening of the Thai baht, and so on. But even with the economic data and theories to back up my claims, who would believe me? Who would believe that the current robust demand is nothing but an example of short-term, pent-up demand after two years of the Covid-19 outbreak? Who would consider the fact that consumers have no increased purchasing power to sustain today's level of consumption? Most of all, who would imagine that things would change drastically in the fourth quarter after consumers face the reality of a higher cost of living and stagnant income?
Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/07/2022
» By the time this article is published, readers will know how much the US Fed funds rate has been raised for the fourth time this year. It does not really matter whether the rate is raised by 0.75% or 1% this time because the Fed will need to keep raising the rate (FFR) until it can effectively control inflation.