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Search Result for “estimate”

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OPINION

In an uncertain world, gold is a comfort

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 05/02/2026

» With Thai citizens heading to the polls this Sunday to decide which party will form the next government, I have decided to postpone my article on the economic crisis for another two weeks.

OPINION

Govt may not have stimulus plan tools

News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 16/10/2025

» Nowadays, governments around the world sound like movie production houses. They always come up with catchy slogans for their policies, like Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

OPINION

The two ways to satisfy Trump on trade

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 10/07/2025

» I am terribly sorry for miscalculating the US's reciprocal tariff for Thailand at 35% in my previous article, when the actual rate imposed by Mr Trump on Monday was 36%.

OPINION

Q2 GDP growth may be misleading

News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 22/08/2024

» I eagerly awaited the release of the Q2/2024 GDP growth figure which became available on Monday. The 2.3% growth figure, presented by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), did not surprise me. A friend had warned me that the quarterly growth could be as high as 2.5%, even though my estimation for the quarter was only 1.0%.

OPINION

Digital wallet tokens could hit scheme

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/08/2024

» I bet the government never thought of this when they thought of the Digital Wallet scheme. It probably does not make sense to it that there could be millions of people shunning pseudo money, namely Digital Wallet Tokens (DWTs). Perhaps, in the government's mind, a DWT is almost on a par with genuine money -- fiat money.

OPINION

2024 financial crisis may be a silent one

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 04/04/2024

» When an economy faces a financial crisis, it can create a big bang like the mass collapse of financial institutions such as during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Thai Tum Yum Kung crisis of 1997, the Japanese financial crisis in late 1997, and the US Hamburger crisis of 2008.

OPINION

Soft or hard landing for Thai economy?

News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 08/02/2024

» Personally, I am sure the Thai economy will crash this year. I can even estimate the time when the crash will start. It is likely to be the month of May as several big economic bombs will explode that month. Confirmation of this belief came in December 2023's economic data. The most disturbing part is industry's capacity utilisation rate of 56.2% (seasonally adjusted), which is the second lowest in the world. The world's lowest is Nigeria!

OPINION

Will foreign investors still be wooed?

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023

» This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.

OPINION

A 4-win solution to the handout plan

News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/11/2023

» There could be a four-win solution to the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme.

OPINION

Dear Santa: Please send $14 billion

Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 02/11/2023

» What Thailand needs is money, money -- and money. The government needs 560 billion baht to run its 10,000 baht cash handout programme next year, and the country needs (at least) 420 billion baht to prevent the 4th quarter economy from collapsing.