Showing 1 - 10 of 30
Fiscal deficit will trigger 2026 crisis
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 19/02/2026
» If readers want to be fully convinced that there will be a financial crisis in 2026, I can do that in three minutes. Readers need only look at the last two columns of the attached table, which depict the financing situation of the Thai economy in 2025 (actual) and 2026 (projected).
Policy options for an overvalued baht
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/12/2025
» This is the last article of 2025. I have to thank readers for following my articles throughout the years. I believe I wrote my first article for the Bangkok Post in January 2020. So, it has been a five-year collaboration with the paper. Thank you, Bangkok Post.
Financing FY 2026 deficit will fall short
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 12/06/2025
» My message is short, loud and clear. There will not be enough money to finance FY 2026's 860 billion baht budget deficit. Without enough money, the budget will collapse and take the economy down with it. The government is learning the bitter lesson of drying up finance sources now, but budget financing will be in crisis in the 2026 fiscal year.
Thai-US trade talks are likely to fail
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 15/05/2025
» Don't get too excited over news the temporary trade deal between China and the US will mean friendly negotiations with other countries. The US government still aims for higher import tax income to narrow its monstrous fiscal deficit. As explained in a previous article, Donald Trump would love to see an average tariff rate of around 20% or higher on imports. Higher customs revenue already allowed the US to achieve a budget surplus of US$258 billion (8.5 trillion baht) in April. The figure incorporates only a 10% universal tariff, as full reciprocal tariffs were postponed for 90 days from April 8. Just imagine how nice the US budget position would be with 20% or more import tariff revenue?
The economy is waiting to hit an iceberg
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/03/2025
» This is not a scene from the 1997 film Titanic. On the evening of April 14th 1912, a small Canadian fishing boat, skippered by a French-Canadian captain called "Jacques-Chai", approached the Titanic wanting to convey a very important message to Captain Edward Smith. The message was that there was a sea of icebergs, one was particularly big, about 200 miles ahead.
Thailand's financial system on the brink
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 20/02/2025
» The issue of a financial crisis hitting Thailand is of grave importance. If it happens, it will push the Thai economy back by five years, triggering indescribable pain and suffering.
20 years of errors can't be fixed easily
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/05/2024
» I have a strong feeling that piecemeal measures are what the economy is going to get from the government to combat Thailand's long-standing economic problems.
Handout difficult without BoT's help
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 18/04/2024
» The purpose of this article is to educate the public about the real issue of the digital wallet scheme. The issue is not "HOW to get the 500 billion baht?" but "Is there 500 billion baht AVAILABLE to be borrowed?"
Financial crisis looms over Thailand
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 25/01/2024
» The definition of an "economic crisis" is much debated in Thailand. This is because one of the requirements for enacting the emergency fiscal borrowing decree is that the economy must be in crisis.
Will foreign investors still be wooed?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023
» This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.