Showing 1 - 10 of 66
Will poll be breakout or more of same?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/02/2026
» As Thais go to the polls this Sunday, the most consequential question is whether Thailand will finally break out of its debilitating cycle of political instability and economic underperformance that has marked the past two decades. The signs and signals suggest otherwise -- at least not yet.
Three main parties and two directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/01/2026
» Although Thailand's election campaign is reaching fever pitch ahead of voting day on Feb 8, the dynamics and contours of its final outcome can be gleaned from past polls over the last 25 years. Only once in January 2001, as was indicated in this space last week, were voter results fully honoured and carried out. Other elections were either upended by military coups or manipulated by judicial interventions.
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/07/2025
» That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs.
PM's crisis and Thai political directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 27/06/2025
» What began just a month ago as a minor border dispute with Cambodia has spiralled into an existential political crisis in Thailand. In what she understood to be a private phone conversation with Cambodia's former prime minister and Senate President, Hun Sen, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra compromised her premiership and undermined Thai national interests. While she tries to ride out the storm, her tenure appears wobbly and unworkable. What comes next will likely proceed in one of three directions revolving around the Thai parliamentary processes, each with its own scenarios and considerations.
Myanmar's civil war after four years
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 31/01/2025
» Four years after its military coup and consequent civil war, Myanmar's spotlight in global headlines continues to dim as geostrategic reorientations and realignments among the major powers take centre stage. Dramatic and drastic foreign policy changes are afoot in the United States under the second administration of President Donald J Trump, while the European Union faces an existential threat from Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and Japan is mired in political sclerosis at home. Myanmar's fate and future will thus likely be determined by the course and outcome of its civil war, China's expanding influence in the country and Asean member states' manoeuvres to a lesser extent.
Thaksin's return and 2025 prospects
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/01/2025
» Thailand's political environment last year was marked by machinations to keep the biggest election winner, the Move Forward Party, from power and to ensure the runner-up, the Pheu Thai Party, leads a coalition government the old guard can put up with. These manoeuvres after the May 2023 poll, initially forced Move Forward into the opposition and ultimately dissolved the party while bringing Thaksin Shinawatra back from self-exile in August 2023 for a perfunctory jail sentence and installing Srettha Thavisin as prime minister over the same period.
Two wasted decades in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/12/2024
» Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralising to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities. Once a promising country on the way from democratic transition to consolidation in the late 1990s, Thailand has become semi-autocratic, and its rocky political trajectory over the past two decades is now structural. The traditional institutions of power that grew out of the Cold War have been calling the shots in earlier decades and are just unwilling to let the country move forward in the immediate years ahead.
Foreign policy needs to be democratic
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 11/10/2024
» To the extent that foreign policy starts at home, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's latest diplomatic forays should be supported because Thailand has become a regional laggard with its international standing at an all-time low. Elected civilian leaders by the people, as opposed to unelected appointees from military-conservative elites, are the way ahead to regain Thailand's international profile and forward movements. Ms Paetongtarn is evidently not the first-best elected outcome, but she is all Thailand has to work with for now.
Move Forward case reveals autocracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/06/2024
» The Constitutional Court's announcement that it will consider the Move Forward Party's (MFP) written defence in its dissolution case on June 12 appears ominous. After several attempts to make its argument that a campaign pledge to amend the lese majeste law against royal insult is not tantamount to "overthrowing Thailand's democratic regime with the King as head of state", the party's time is up. As the biggest election winner in May 2023, the MFP's dissolution is perceived as a foregone conclusion. Such a revelation might risk Thailand being perceived as an autocratic regime based on legal manoeuvres, and power plays that do not derive from voter preferences.
Thailand between the US and China
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/03/2024
» Amid what now has to be acknowledged as a direct non-military conflict and a geoeconomic war of sorts between the United States and China, Thailand is in a quandary. While characterising Thailand's geostrategic dilemma as a US-China binary can be exaggerated and misleading, it does have a point. As with many other developing countries in the region, Thailand will come under increasing pressure to choose between the two competing superpowers. The ability not to choose thus becomes an overarching geostrategic objective.