Showing 1 - 10 of 67
Implications of conservative triumph
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/02/2026
» The incumbent and conservative Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party has surprisingly swept Thailand's Feb 8 election with a commanding win. With the previously poll-leading and progressive People's Party (PP) coming in a distant second, Thailand appears headed for a conservative coalition government revolving around BJT and like-minded junior partners. Known for its conservative stance and being pro-status quo, it would not be surprising if the BJT-led coalition government, led by Prime Minister-elect Anutin Charnvirakul, were not challenged by the Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, and other supervisory agencies, which have derailed and dissolved reform-minded winning parties in the past.
Three main parties and two directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/01/2026
» Although Thailand's election campaign is reaching fever pitch ahead of voting day on Feb 8, the dynamics and contours of its final outcome can be gleaned from past polls over the last 25 years. Only once in January 2001, as was indicated in this space last week, were voter results fully honoured and carried out. Other elections were either upended by military coups or manipulated by judicial interventions.
Domestic drivers of bilateral conflict
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/12/2025
» The latest flare-up and intensification of the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia should be understood less as a new crisis and more as a resumption of a bilateral clash that erupted in late July.
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/07/2025
» That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs.
Defusing Thai-Cambodian border row
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/06/2025
» At issue in the ongoing border standoff between the Thai and Cambodian armed forces is timing and circumstance. In less than two weeks, a seemingly minor border skirmish intensified into a full-scale military confrontation. What is being overlooked in the thick of mutual antagonism and ultranationalism on both sides is when and how the current round of confrontation transpired. Getting its origins right is crucial to finding ways and means for conflict resolution.
Thailand needs a geostrategic rebalance
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/06/2025
» With two military coups and multiple judicial interventions that combined to subvert election results and weaken democratic institutions over the past two decades, it is unsurprising that Thailand's geostrategic position has leaned increasingly towards China. Naturally, the more Thailand becomes autocratic, the more it will be estranged from established democracies in Europe and North America, as well as Japan and South Korea, with nowhere to turn but to Beijing. But this China orientation is a geostrategic mistake at this time. Thailand should correct its course until clearer signs emerge as to which side of the superpower struggle will come out on top.
Thailand's false sense of tariff security
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/05/2025
» Thailand is in deeper trouble among its peer group in view of United States President Donald Trump's tariff offensive. Yet senior Thai officials appear nonchalant, complacent and smug. They seem to think Thailand will come out of the US tariff war in good shape as the Trump administration will prove unable to go through with its hefty import duties. The domestic political battle between the US executive and judicial branch -- with the Court of International Trade's injunction this week on most of the Trump tariffs -- further adds to the absurd sense of security and false perception of Thailand's importance by Thai officials.
Thailand lags in the global trade war
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 11/04/2025
» Thailand is fast isolating itself from the international community and falling behind in the emerging geoeconomic warfare to the detriment of its economy and people. The elected government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is ironically coming up with outcomes that resemble those of the military administration a decade ago. Thailand must now move quickly to contain policy damage and restore its international standing to navigate and come out of the intensifying geoeconomic war in as decent a shape as possible.
The tyranny of anarchy and what to do
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/03/2025
» It is both exciting and alarming to be a student of international affairs as the world is being turned upside down. In just two months, the second administration of President Donald J Trump has sent shockwaves rippling through the international system as the United States pulls back from its role as leader, underwriter, and guardian of the nearly 80-year-old international order that it instrumentally constructed after WWII. In view of the US's portentous withdrawal, relative anarchy in the international system is back with a vengeance, leaving Asean members and smaller states elsewhere to fend for themselves in a self-help geostrategic environment.
Myanmar's civil war after four years
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 31/01/2025
» Four years after its military coup and consequent civil war, Myanmar's spotlight in global headlines continues to dim as geostrategic reorientations and realignments among the major powers take centre stage. Dramatic and drastic foreign policy changes are afoot in the United States under the second administration of President Donald J Trump, while the European Union faces an existential threat from Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and Japan is mired in political sclerosis at home. Myanmar's fate and future will thus likely be determined by the course and outcome of its civil war, China's expanding influence in the country and Asean member states' manoeuvres to a lesser extent.