Showing 1 - 10 of 24
Will poll be breakout or more of same?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/02/2026
» As Thais go to the polls this Sunday, the most consequential question is whether Thailand will finally break out of its debilitating cycle of political instability and economic underperformance that has marked the past two decades. The signs and signals suggest otherwise -- at least not yet.
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/07/2025
» That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs.
Thailand needs a geostrategic rebalance
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/06/2025
» With two military coups and multiple judicial interventions that combined to subvert election results and weaken democratic institutions over the past two decades, it is unsurprising that Thailand's geostrategic position has leaned increasingly towards China. Naturally, the more Thailand becomes autocratic, the more it will be estranged from established democracies in Europe and North America, as well as Japan and South Korea, with nowhere to turn but to Beijing. But this China orientation is a geostrategic mistake at this time. Thailand should correct its course until clearer signs emerge as to which side of the superpower struggle will come out on top.
Thailand lags in the global trade war
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 11/04/2025
» Thailand is fast isolating itself from the international community and falling behind in the emerging geoeconomic warfare to the detriment of its economy and people. The elected government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is ironically coming up with outcomes that resemble those of the military administration a decade ago. Thailand must now move quickly to contain policy damage and restore its international standing to navigate and come out of the intensifying geoeconomic war in as decent a shape as possible.
New government is new wine in old bottle
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/09/2024
» On the face of it, the new government under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appears to be a generational shift and gender breakthrough. Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest prime minister ever at 38 and only the second female government leader after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2011-14. The Paetongtarn cabinet features a record eight women among 36 with more ministers in their 30s-50s and fewer above 60. Yet on closer scrutiny, the new and younger faces are largely family legacies and proxies, surrounded by old-style politicians, while the new government's policy directions sound dated not well-suited for the times ahead.
Thailand's era of economic stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/07/2024
» After two decades of political instability and turmoil, it was a matter of time before the Thai economy would exhibit signs of distress and desperation. For decades, the Thai economy has proved resilient with an uncanny knack for bouncing back. But Teflon Thailand may have become a thing of the past. Headlines on the Thai economy have been heading south precipitously. Unless fundamental political reforms take place, Thailand will likely enter a period of low and plateaued growth with risks of grinding stagnation.
Thailand's central bank dependence
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/02/2024
» To proponents of central bank independence, the ongoing friction between Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin and Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput appears straightforward. The prime minister is putting unwarranted and unfair pressure on the central bank governor to spur the economy by loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Yet, on closer scrutiny, the entrenched politicisation of central banking in Thailand may suggest otherwise. There is more than meets the eye in the politics of interest rate cuts.
Thailand's semi-democracy faces risks
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/12/2023
» The government of Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin has settled into an uneasy balance between the civilian-led majority forces that represent the Thai electorate and the royalist-conservative minority guardians of the established centres anchored around the monarchy, military, judiciary, and bureaucracy.
Tolerating populism for democracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/10/2023
» The so-called “super deal” in August that resulted in the return of Thaksin Shinawatra and the formation of the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition government under Srettha Thavisin evidently has its limitations. It appears to be rejected by sections of the conservative old guard who still wants to resort to extra-parliamentary ways and means to undermine Thailand’s delicate parliamentary democracy. Reminiscent of past protests against Mr Thaksin’s brand of populism, a new round of extra-parliamentary political movement has begun in earnest with the petition launched by 99 prominent economists, including former central bank governors, against the Srettha government’s 10,000-baht digital wallet policy.
Stakes and meanings of the 2023 poll
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 17/03/2023
» For all intents and purposes, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will not call an early election and will practically use up the full four-year term before dissolving the Lower House. Calling an early poll is often a sign of confidence and stability while putting it off to the last minute can be seen as timid and desperate. Nevertheless, the good news is that Thailand will have an election soon. The broader stakes and meanings of the upcoming poll are as follows.