Showing 1 - 10 of 49
Three main parties and two directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/01/2026
» Although Thailand's election campaign is reaching fever pitch ahead of voting day on Feb 8, the dynamics and contours of its final outcome can be gleaned from past polls over the last 25 years. Only once in January 2001, as was indicated in this space last week, were voter results fully honoured and carried out. Other elections were either upended by military coups or manipulated by judicial interventions.
Flawed Asean needs to regain footing
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 10/10/2025
» Nearly six decades after its founding, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) finds itself back where it began -- divided, uncertain, and vulnerable to the influence of major powers. Once hailed as a model for regional cooperation in the developing world, Asean now faces a crisis of purpose. Unless it can rediscover the unity and collective way forward that defined its early decades, Southeast Asia's flagship institution risks slipping into irrelevance.
Southeast Asia amid the US-China rift
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/10/2025
» The rivalry between the United States and China has become the defining contest of the 21st century. Barely two decades ago, Washington and Beijing were partners in prosperity. America's support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 epitomised the high-water mark of engagement, reflecting the belief that economic integration would lead to greater political cooperation. Today, that partnership has morphed into suspicion and confrontation. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated so swiftly that many observers now describe them as locked in a "new Cold War". The more pressing question, however, is not whether this analogy holds, but whether confrontation can be managed short of outright conflict.
Srettha Thavisin fell to hidden forces
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/08/2024
» Hindsight is likely to place Srettha Thavisin in Thai political annals as a prime minister who tried his best but ultimately succumbed to forces way beyond his control. While his nearly 12-month tenure in office came up short on policy deliverables, it nevertheless reset Thailand's foreign policy projection on Myanmar amid more omnidirectional relations with the major powers.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Thai political legitimacy in question
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 28/07/2023
» The ongoing distortion of election results and systematic subversion of the popular will in Thai politics raise questions of political legitimacy at home and abroad. By all accounts, the combined victory of the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) and Pheu Thai appears unlikely to lead to their formation of a government. While many voters feel shortchanged by the power plays behind the scenes, what is happening to the MFP should behove the international community to draw a red line across which the eventual government outcome cannot be deemed democratically legitimate and credible in reflection of voter preferences.
Potential tricks and results in Thai poll
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 12/05/2023
» The fundamental risk in Thailand's election this Sunday is that ruling incumbents, spearheaded by coup-maker-cum-prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and underpinned by the powers-that-be, are headed for a big loss. Yet they are unlikely to go away without distortion, subversion, and confrontation, as has been the case in the recent past. Unless the poll results are clear and unassailable, it is likely that more funny business will be put in motion after the election.
The truth about Thai money politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/01/2023
» As the election looms in Thailand, money politics returns with a vengeance.
Global, regional, local trends for 2023
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/12/2022
» Although economic predictions are usually reserved for the foolhardy, as the future is always difficult to ascertain, there are certain trend lines and probabilities that can be discerned at the global and regional level as well as the local level here in Thailand. As a year-end exercise, we can tease out a few contours with a reasonably high degree of probability.
Next poll brings highest stakes, risks
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/12/2022
» In the face of the myriad of questions and issues that beset Thai politics in the lead-up to the general election, which must be held by May 7, the biggest facts and dilemmas are not being raised. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is now headed to complete nine years in office, the first five of which were under a military government after he and his cohorts seized power by force in May 2014, and the last four under an elected coalition government enabled by the 2017 constitution crafted by a committee the ruling generals had set up. Moving forward, Thailand risks settling into a prolonged period of economic stagnation and political decay unless there is a qualitative change of government after the poll.