Showing 1 - 10 of 43
Will poll be breakout or more of same?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/02/2026
» As Thais go to the polls this Sunday, the most consequential question is whether Thailand will finally break out of its debilitating cycle of political instability and economic underperformance that has marked the past two decades. The signs and signals suggest otherwise -- at least not yet.
Digesting Trump's trip through Asia
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/11/2025
» Storming through Asia last week, US President Donald Trump's first stop in Kuala Lumpur on Oct 26, before moving on to Japan and South Korea over the next four days, capped by his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping before returning to Washington, was the most consequential for Southeast Asian economies.
Southeast Asia amid the US-China rift
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/10/2025
» The rivalry between the United States and China has become the defining contest of the 21st century. Barely two decades ago, Washington and Beijing were partners in prosperity. America's support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 epitomised the high-water mark of engagement, reflecting the belief that economic integration would lead to greater political cooperation. Today, that partnership has morphed into suspicion and confrontation. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated so swiftly that many observers now describe them as locked in a "new Cold War". The more pressing question, however, is not whether this analogy holds, but whether confrontation can be managed short of outright conflict.
Trump tariffs sow divisions in Asean
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/05/2025
» President Donald Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs across the United States' economic chessboard poses a critical test for Asean. As the regional organisation of Southeast Asia, Asean has weathered many geopolitical and geoeconomic storms in its 58-year existence, but no adversity like the Trump tariffs. Unless Asean reorganises and regroups, the ten-member body risks further divisions and increasing irrelevance.
The tyranny of anarchy and what to do
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/03/2025
» It is both exciting and alarming to be a student of international affairs as the world is being turned upside down. In just two months, the second administration of President Donald J Trump has sent shockwaves rippling through the international system as the United States pulls back from its role as leader, underwriter, and guardian of the nearly 80-year-old international order that it instrumentally constructed after WWII. In view of the US's portentous withdrawal, relative anarchy in the international system is back with a vengeance, leaving Asean members and smaller states elsewhere to fend for themselves in a self-help geostrategic environment.
What's happened to the Asian Century?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 14/02/2025
» Until recently, the "Asian Century" seemed a compelling narrative but now it is not what it used to be. It was supposed to herald a shift in global economic power from the West to the East, driven by China's rapid rise, India's economic dynamism, and the broader development of Asia. But a quarter of the way into the 21st century, the promise of Asian dominance appears less certain. The enduring technological and economic might of the United States, coupled with its geopolitical backlash against China, has lowered expectations. While Asia remains formidable, the trajectory of global power is open and fluid, with potential dominance shifting not necessarily to any nation or region but perhaps to a non-state entity.
Two wasted decades in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/12/2024
» Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralising to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities. Once a promising country on the way from democratic transition to consolidation in the late 1990s, Thailand has become semi-autocratic, and its rocky political trajectory over the past two decades is now structural. The traditional institutions of power that grew out of the Cold War have been calling the shots in earlier decades and are just unwilling to let the country move forward in the immediate years ahead.
New government is new wine in old bottle
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/09/2024
» On the face of it, the new government under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appears to be a generational shift and gender breakthrough. Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest prime minister ever at 38 and only the second female government leader after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2011-14. The Paetongtarn cabinet features a record eight women among 36 with more ministers in their 30s-50s and fewer above 60. Yet on closer scrutiny, the new and younger faces are largely family legacies and proxies, surrounded by old-style politicians, while the new government's policy directions sound dated not well-suited for the times ahead.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Tolerating populism for democracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/10/2023
» The so-called “super deal” in August that resulted in the return of Thaksin Shinawatra and the formation of the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition government under Srettha Thavisin evidently has its limitations. It appears to be rejected by sections of the conservative old guard who still wants to resort to extra-parliamentary ways and means to undermine Thailand’s delicate parliamentary democracy. Reminiscent of past protests against Mr Thaksin’s brand of populism, a new round of extra-parliamentary political movement has begun in earnest with the petition launched by 99 prominent economists, including former central bank governors, against the Srettha government’s 10,000-baht digital wallet policy.