Showing 1 - 10 of 14
Thaksin's return and 2025 prospects
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/01/2025
» Thailand's political environment last year was marked by machinations to keep the biggest election winner, the Move Forward Party, from power and to ensure the runner-up, the Pheu Thai Party, leads a coalition government the old guard can put up with. These manoeuvres after the May 2023 poll, initially forced Move Forward into the opposition and ultimately dissolved the party while bringing Thaksin Shinawatra back from self-exile in August 2023 for a perfunctory jail sentence and installing Srettha Thavisin as prime minister over the same period.
Two wasted decades in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/12/2024
» Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralising to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities. Once a promising country on the way from democratic transition to consolidation in the late 1990s, Thailand has become semi-autocratic, and its rocky political trajectory over the past two decades is now structural. The traditional institutions of power that grew out of the Cold War have been calling the shots in earlier decades and are just unwilling to let the country move forward in the immediate years ahead.
Deja vu as charter court weighs MFP ban
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 12/01/2024
» It is déjà vu in Thai politics this month as Thailand's biggest elected political party and its leader face Constitutional Court verdicts that could lead to a familiar dissolution and ban. At issue is the political future of Pita Limjaroenrat and the fate of the Move Forward Party (MFP), which he led to a stunning victory at the election last May. However the verdicts come out, they might be perceived by pundits as decided by the political winds of the day.
Asian elections, democracy in 2024
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 29/12/2023
» Billed as the biggest election year ever as more than half of the global population goes to the polls, 2024 will be critical to the debate about democratisation and autocratisation. Asia will lead the way with elections in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, while the most recent polls in Myanmar and Thailand offer long-term lessons about democracy and dictatorship. The salient themes next year will be about the self-perpetuating tendencies of incumbent regimes and the resilience of democratic rule when authoritarianism seemed to have the upper hand.
Japan's dilemmas need bold answers
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 03/11/2023
» Among the big countries vying for power and influence in the fluid and contentious geostrategic arena, Japan faces the most daunting challenges. Most of the recognised major powers in Asia, from China and India to Indonesia and South Korea, are rising and aspiring for bigger roles and grander objectives, while Japan's place in the global pecking order has been in decline. The last time Japan had to confront such an existential threat to its place in the world may have been in the 1860s when the Western powers shook up and threatened to take over the isolated and inward-looking martial society.
Only the young can change Thailand
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/06/2023
» If the past two decades of Thai politics has been about populism and colour-coded conflicts between the yellow-shirted pro-establishment forces against the red shirts aligned with ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the foreseeable future will likely be about structural reforms and a generational clash between the age-old established centres of power against young Thais who are rising up to determine their country's future directions. It is unsurprising that only younger Thais can change Thailand because their old compatriots have too much at stake and too many vested interests in the entrenched and deeply embedded status quo.
The tide of history shifts in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/06/2023
» Notwithstanding the ongoing political shenanigans by appointed agencies to shape final outcomes after the May 14 poll, Thailand already will never be the same again. The Move Forward Party's (MFP) victory as the largest winning side, with 151 out of 500 parliamentary seats, is profound but not unprecedented. Together with the Pheu Thai Party's 141 MPs, these two opposition parties are unwittingly sending a message to each other and to the broader political establishment that the curve of Thai history is shifting tectonically. Failing to grasp and adjust to this evolving tide of history could marginalise Pheu Thai and challenge the establishment to its core foundations.
Geopolitical takeaways from SEA meets
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 25/11/2022
» Southeast Asia's summit season has come and gone with takeaways that concurrently eased geopolitical tensions and underlined risks that could lead to future global conflict. The three major summits -- the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Phnom Penh, the G20 in Bali, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) in Bangkok -- also demonstrated that the Covid-19 pandemic over 2020-21 has been practically overcome as in-person meetings are back in full force. Overall, the three hosts came away with mixed highlights.
No duopoly in Thai jab procurement
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 28/05/2021
» Just as Thailand's murky vaccine plan has gone from bad to worse, the plot keeps thickening. The latest development centres on the May 25 publication in the Royal Gazette of the Chulabhorn Royal Academy's authority to procure Covid-19 vaccines within the country and from abroad as needed for public health benefits. As has been promptly noted elsewhere, this vaccine bombshell could be perceived as a snub to the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, particularly Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Thailand's effectively dual-track vaccine strategy is now likely to engender major repercussions.
The karmic results of voter suppression
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 30/10/2020
» When Thailand's justice system issues decisions that have political ramifications, fewer people are holding their breath these days because conclusions are increasingly foregone. In fact, when the historical record comes into fuller view, it will be seen that the politicisation of the judiciary has fundamentally undermined Thailand's fragile democratic development and reinforced authoritarian rule that has been resurgent over the past 15 years. Nowhere are these judicial sins and shortcoming more salient and damning than the systematic and selective disenfranchisement of voters.