Showing 1 - 10 of 46
Will poll be breakout or more of same?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/02/2026
» As Thais go to the polls this Sunday, the most consequential question is whether Thailand will finally break out of its debilitating cycle of political instability and economic underperformance that has marked the past two decades. The signs and signals suggest otherwise -- at least not yet.
Three main parties and two directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/01/2026
» Although Thailand's election campaign is reaching fever pitch ahead of voting day on Feb 8, the dynamics and contours of its final outcome can be gleaned from past polls over the last 25 years. Only once in January 2001, as was indicated in this space last week, were voter results fully honoured and carried out. Other elections were either upended by military coups or manipulated by judicial interventions.
Domestic drivers of bilateral conflict
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/12/2025
» The latest flare-up and intensification of the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia should be understood less as a new crisis and more as a resumption of a bilateral clash that erupted in late July.
Anutin's new cabinet is a mixed bag
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 26/09/2025
» The composition and size of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's 36-member cabinet suggest that he intends to stay in office for as long as possible, clinging to the terms of the government-enabling Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) and calling an early election only if circumstances make it unavoidable.
Thaksin chapter closes, another opens
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/09/2025
» In yet another dramatic twist in Thai politics, erstwhile anti-establishment political juggernaut and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra accepted a one-year jail sentence and began serving his time behind bars on Sept 9. After his return from a 15-year self-imposed exile in August 2023 and a concomitant royal pardon that reduced his eight-year imprisonment on corruption convictions to just one year, Thaksin cited his gravely ill health and spent the time comfortably at the Police General Hospital before being released on parole. The Supreme Court's ruling that his get-out-of-jail health card was invalid means Thaksin's renewed imprisonment and its aftermath are likely to reshape and realign Thailand's political landscape ahead of the next election, due by mid-2027.
Thailand's costly political shenanigans
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 22/08/2025
» In a country of 70 million where a handful of men can remove an elected government time and again, there can be no stability and progress, only tension and regression. This is how Thailand can be characterised over the past two decades. It is now going through yet another cycle of heightened political instability with the potential collapse of the government under suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the footsteps of previous leaders who were similarly ousted by the Constitutional Court.
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/07/2025
» That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs.
Thai politics back at the brink (again)
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 04/07/2025
» The Constitutional Court's suspension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership is déjà vu, exposing a pattern of systematic manipulation and concoction of political outcomes. After so many dissolutions of leading political parties and repeated bans of elected representatives over two decades, it is time to call a spade a spade. Thailand is a faux democracy. Its core foundations constitute an autocratic regime that does not really care about the country's future and the collective will of its people.
PM's crisis and Thai political directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 27/06/2025
» What began just a month ago as a minor border dispute with Cambodia has spiralled into an existential political crisis in Thailand. In what she understood to be a private phone conversation with Cambodia's former prime minister and Senate President, Hun Sen, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra compromised her premiership and undermined Thai national interests. While she tries to ride out the storm, her tenure appears wobbly and unworkable. What comes next will likely proceed in one of three directions revolving around the Thai parliamentary processes, each with its own scenarios and considerations.
The tyranny of anarchy and what to do
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/03/2025
» It is both exciting and alarming to be a student of international affairs as the world is being turned upside down. In just two months, the second administration of President Donald J Trump has sent shockwaves rippling through the international system as the United States pulls back from its role as leader, underwriter, and guardian of the nearly 80-year-old international order that it instrumentally constructed after WWII. In view of the US's portentous withdrawal, relative anarchy in the international system is back with a vengeance, leaving Asean members and smaller states elsewhere to fend for themselves in a self-help geostrategic environment.