Showing 1 - 10 of 11
Two wasted decades in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/12/2024
» Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralising to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities. Once a promising country on the way from democratic transition to consolidation in the late 1990s, Thailand has become semi-autocratic, and its rocky political trajectory over the past two decades is now structural. The traditional institutions of power that grew out of the Cold War have been calling the shots in earlier decades and are just unwilling to let the country move forward in the immediate years ahead.
Only the young can change Thailand
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/06/2023
» If the past two decades of Thai politics has been about populism and colour-coded conflicts between the yellow-shirted pro-establishment forces against the red shirts aligned with ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the foreseeable future will likely be about structural reforms and a generational clash between the age-old established centres of power against young Thais who are rising up to determine their country's future directions. It is unsurprising that only younger Thais can change Thailand because their old compatriots have too much at stake and too many vested interests in the entrenched and deeply embedded status quo.
The tide of history shifts in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/06/2023
» Notwithstanding the ongoing political shenanigans by appointed agencies to shape final outcomes after the May 14 poll, Thailand already will never be the same again. The Move Forward Party's (MFP) victory as the largest winning side, with 151 out of 500 parliamentary seats, is profound but not unprecedented. Together with the Pheu Thai Party's 141 MPs, these two opposition parties are unwittingly sending a message to each other and to the broader political establishment that the curve of Thai history is shifting tectonically. Failing to grasp and adjust to this evolving tide of history could marginalise Pheu Thai and challenge the establishment to its core foundations.
Age-old nature of the 'New Cold War'
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 19/11/2021
» History is back with a vengeance. Contrary to what proponents of the "end of history" theory said a few decades ago, the ideological struggle of the 20th century between the "free world" versus "the socialist-communist" camp is still ongoing, despite the Cold War ending over three decades ago. The struggle now features the United States-led Western alliance versus the China-centric global network of nations with authoritarian tendencies.
Reforms need broadening of the agenda
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 25/09/2020
» Thailand's student-led protest movement for overdue political change and reforms has reached a crucial juncture. In the aftermath of its most recent demonstration on Sept 19 at Sanam Luang public ground and open field in front of the Grand Palace in Bangkok's old town, the protest agenda can be seen as either zooming in directly on monarchical reform or emanating more from the side and down below on broader institutional changes that include the monarchy.
Youth movement has staying power
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/08/2020
» As Thailand's youth movement for political change gathers momentum, it has already shown unprecedented trends and patterns. Moving forward, the conservative forces who oppose change and reform will likely train their sights on these young demonstrators to deny and derail them through manipulation and coercion. But this youth movement is unlikely to stop without a fight. These young men and women of high school and university age are here to stay for the long haul because their collective future, not just the ideology and ideals they espouse, is at stake.
Thailand's prospects and risks in 2020s
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 31/01/2020
» Notwithstanding recent worldwide celebrations to mark the arrival of 2020, Thailand should be seen as having entered not just a new year but a new decade. Since World War II, Thailand's journey over the ensuing decades meandered through ebbs and flows, overcoming critical bumps and barriers along the way. When 2030 arrives, this country of 70 million predominantly happy-go-lucky people will have faced a prolonged reckoning. While its near-term prospects are likely to worsen, Thailand's long-term future will be either better compared to the past two decades or bad for the long term.
Thailand's lessons from the Prem years
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 31/05/2019
» In a galloping world of communications instantaneity, Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's passing earlier this week is likely to be framed by popular expectations and grievances so far in the 21st century rather than the conditions and circumstances of the 20th century where most of the late elder statesman's life was rooted.
Gen Prayut's uncommon dictatorship
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 08/02/2019
» When confronted with the contention that Thailand's upcoming election is rigged and manipulated, the insiders and advisers of the Thai government will say otherwise. They argue that this poll is no more rigged than its predecessors and the incumbents and power holders of the day will naturally and understandably arrange for constitutional laws and election rules to be written to suit their interests and boost their poll chances. Some of this rationalisation is true, but most of it is self-interested hogwash.
Global turmoil and Thailand's political reset
News, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 21/12/2018
» As the world moves into 2019, there is a consensus that the roughly seven-decade-old rules-based liberal international order no longer works. Either it has to be fundamentally revamped to suit new realities and the international distribution of power and wealth, or it will be increasingly violated and marginalised. In a remarkable parallel, Thailand's hitherto political order that lasted about seven decades also requires adjustment and recalibration.