Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Thailand's political trajectory in 2026
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/01/2026
» What happens in Thai politics this year and the immediate horizon will be determined by the upcoming election on Feb 8. While contesting political parties are in full campaign mode, the contemporary history of Thai polls so far in the 21st century is not encouraging. Only once in the past 25 years have voting results went the way they were meant to, in accordance with the popular will. Whether the vote in four weeks will follow the same pattern will depend on whether the conservative establishment gets its preferred outcome.
What's happened to the Asian Century?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 14/02/2025
» Until recently, the "Asian Century" seemed a compelling narrative but now it is not what it used to be. It was supposed to herald a shift in global economic power from the West to the East, driven by China's rapid rise, India's economic dynamism, and the broader development of Asia. But a quarter of the way into the 21st century, the promise of Asian dominance appears less certain. The enduring technological and economic might of the United States, coupled with its geopolitical backlash against China, has lowered expectations. While Asia remains formidable, the trajectory of global power is open and fluid, with potential dominance shifting not necessarily to any nation or region but perhaps to a non-state entity.
New government is new wine in old bottle
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 13/09/2024
» On the face of it, the new government under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appears to be a generational shift and gender breakthrough. Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest prime minister ever at 38 and only the second female government leader after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2011-14. The Paetongtarn cabinet features a record eight women among 36 with more ministers in their 30s-50s and fewer above 60. Yet on closer scrutiny, the new and younger faces are largely family legacies and proxies, surrounded by old-style politicians, while the new government's policy directions sound dated not well-suited for the times ahead.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Global, regional, local trends for 2023
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 23/12/2022
» Although economic predictions are usually reserved for the foolhardy, as the future is always difficult to ascertain, there are certain trend lines and probabilities that can be discerned at the global and regional level as well as the local level here in Thailand. As a year-end exercise, we can tease out a few contours with a reasonably high degree of probability.
US shoots itself in foot over Taiwan
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 05/08/2022
» Even pro-democracy critics of China’s authoritarian ways would have to call United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan an undue provocation that ended up as a lose-lose outcome for all concerned, including the 82-year-old congresswoman. Everything about it was misguided and self-indulgent, designed for domestic consumption in the US rather than regional peace and security in Asia. The US, by way of Mrs Pelosi, has unnecessarily shot itself in the foot big time, leaving regional states and societies to deal with the consequences.
Thai politics' murky tunnel to nowhere
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/01/2022
» Starting out a new year should engender a sense of hope and optimism that tomorrow can be better than yesterday. But the reality in Thailand suggests otherwise. A sense of prolonged malaise and discontent pervades the scene, where politics will likely prove murky with an economy persistently in the doldrums, underpinned by continuing societal divisions and broad-based unhappiness. Unless drastic changes and reforms take place very soon, this year is likely to further solidify the onset of a decade of decay and stagnation.
The 'salim' phenomenon in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/12/2020
» Few phenomena explain and underpin Thai politics more than the rise and decline of what is known pejoratively these days as salim, a metaphorical variation of salim, a Thai dessert comprising multi-coloured thin noodles served in coconut milk with crushed ice. Once socially attractive and politically fashionable, salim have gone out of vogue, looked down upon in a new era of anti-establishment protest for pro-democracy reforms under the new reign. What becomes of these pro-military royalist-conservative salim will have much to say about what will happen to Thailand's political future.
Where to start Thai reform and change?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/10/2020
» In Thailand's new era under a new reign, reform and change can hardly be formulated and implemented fast enough because much of what ails the country has been suppressed and swept under the rug for years. The most consequential question now is not whether Thailand needs to change but where to start. Getting the starting point wrong will end up causing more grief and pain after so much suffering that has already transpired.
Reforms need broadening of the agenda
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 25/09/2020
» Thailand's student-led protest movement for overdue political change and reforms has reached a crucial juncture. In the aftermath of its most recent demonstration on Sept 19 at Sanam Luang public ground and open field in front of the Grand Palace in Bangkok's old town, the protest agenda can be seen as either zooming in directly on monarchical reform or emanating more from the side and down below on broader institutional changes that include the monarchy.