Showing 1 - 10 of 61
Will poll be breakout or more of same?
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 06/02/2026
» As Thais go to the polls this Sunday, the most consequential question is whether Thailand will finally break out of its debilitating cycle of political instability and economic underperformance that has marked the past two decades. The signs and signals suggest otherwise -- at least not yet.
Three main parties and two directions
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 16/01/2026
» Although Thailand's election campaign is reaching fever pitch ahead of voting day on Feb 8, the dynamics and contours of its final outcome can be gleaned from past polls over the last 25 years. Only once in January 2001, as was indicated in this space last week, were voter results fully honoured and carried out. Other elections were either upended by military coups or manipulated by judicial interventions.
Thailand's political trajectory in 2026
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/01/2026
» What happens in Thai politics this year and the immediate horizon will be determined by the upcoming election on Feb 8. While contesting political parties are in full campaign mode, the contemporary history of Thai polls so far in the 21st century is not encouraging. Only once in the past 25 years have voting results went the way they were meant to, in accordance with the popular will. Whether the vote in four weeks will follow the same pattern will depend on whether the conservative establishment gets its preferred outcome.
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 18/07/2025
» That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs.
Trump tariffs sow divisions in Asean
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 02/05/2025
» President Donald Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs across the United States' economic chessboard poses a critical test for Asean. As the regional organisation of Southeast Asia, Asean has weathered many geopolitical and geoeconomic storms in its 58-year existence, but no adversity like the Trump tariffs. Unless Asean reorganises and regroups, the ten-member body risks further divisions and increasing irrelevance.
Two wasted decades in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 20/12/2024
» Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralising to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities. Once a promising country on the way from democratic transition to consolidation in the late 1990s, Thailand has become semi-autocratic, and its rocky political trajectory over the past two decades is now structural. The traditional institutions of power that grew out of the Cold War have been calling the shots in earlier decades and are just unwilling to let the country move forward in the immediate years ahead.
Uncharted territory and a case of déjà vu
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 09/08/2024
» Another dissolution of another election winner should feel old in Thai politics. But what happened to Move Forward Party is not just déjà vu but uncharted territory. Its dissolution fits a recurrent pattern of systematic subversion of democratic institutions in favour of autocratic preferences in disregard of the will of the majority. The Constitutional Court's breakup of Move Forward also breaks new ground that is increasingly taking centre stage in Thailand's political landscape.
Move Forward case reveals autocracy
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 07/06/2024
» The Constitutional Court's announcement that it will consider the Move Forward Party's (MFP) written defence in its dissolution case on June 12 appears ominous. After several attempts to make its argument that a campaign pledge to amend the lese majeste law against royal insult is not tantamount to "overthrowing Thailand's democratic regime with the King as head of state", the party's time is up. As the biggest election winner in May 2023, the MFP's dissolution is perceived as a foregone conclusion. Such a revelation might risk Thailand being perceived as an autocratic regime based on legal manoeuvres, and power plays that do not derive from voter preferences.
The Thaksin factor in Thai politics
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 15/03/2024
» Thai politics in the near term will likely be dominated by the fate of the two largest vote winners from the general election in May 2023, the Move Forward (MFP) and Pheu Thai parties. While the MFP is at risk of another dissolution, the same as its predecessor Future Forward Party suffered in 2020, Pheu Thai's political future appears to hinge on Thaksin Shinawatra and his return from exile in what is believed to be a deal that follows the assumption of the premiership under Srettha Thavisin, and for Thaksin, a royal pardon and early release on parole.
Deja vu as charter court weighs MFP ban
Oped, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Published on 12/01/2024
» It is déjà vu in Thai politics this month as Thailand's biggest elected political party and its leader face Constitutional Court verdicts that could lead to a familiar dissolution and ban. At issue is the political future of Pita Limjaroenrat and the fate of the Move Forward Party (MFP), which he led to a stunning victory at the election last May. However the verdicts come out, they might be perceived by pundits as decided by the political winds of the day.