Showing 1 - 6 of 6
Central banks can't solve all woes
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 25/02/2019
» In the short time since December 2018, central banks have collectively injected as much as US$500 billion (15.6 trillion baht) of liquidity to stabilise economic conditions. The US Federal Reserve has put interest rate increases on hold and is contemplating a halt to its balance-sheet reduction plan. Other central banks have taken similar actions, fuelling a new phase of the "everything bubble" as markets careen from December's indiscriminate selling to January's indiscriminate buying.
Is an emerging-market crisis near?
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 05/09/2018
» Emerging-market stresses have been building since at least 2013. Investors may have forgotten the effect of the "taper tantrum" on the so-called Fragile Five -- Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa -- a term coined by Morgan Stanley to describe their vulnerability to capital outflows. Monetary accommodation, lower current-account deficits and growth disguised the underlying challenges, attracting more capital to those markets.
Are emerging markets ready for a financial crisis?
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 27/08/2018
» Over the past decade, a lot of capital has flowed into emerging markets thanks in part to excessive liquidity in advanced economies. This money has often found its way into risky or suspect investment structures. Should a crisis strike -- say, contagion from Turkey -- investors in these markets will be exposed to risks that they simply aren't prepared for.
Don't bet on much change in 2017
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 03/01/2017
» At the end of each year, commentators traditionally reflect on emergent themes likely to shape the future. These prognostications usually ignore the indifferent record of prophets. The current consensus identifies two themes for the coming year: rising populism, and reflation -- that is, stronger growth and the return of inflation.
No one can win a global currency war
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 18/08/2016
» It has been a year since a sudden, 1.9% decline in the Chinese yuan rattled global markets and prompted fears of a global currency war. China has mostly soothed nerves by moderating the renminbi's swoon since then. But what should really put minds to rest is the knowledge that no one could win a true currency war today.
There is no simple solution to the looming downturn
News, Satyajit Das, Published on 16/06/2016
» A growing number of economists seem convinced that the US, EU and China are all headed for a prolonged period of sluggish growth -- secular stagnation, in the words of former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. A close parallel would seem to be 1990s Japan. There, too, the bursting of debt-funded asset price bubbles gave way to multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus, massive monetary easing and rock-bottom interest rates. Rescue efforts stabilised conditions but couldn't spark a sustainable recovery, leaving the economy mired in low growth, low inflation and high debt.