Showing 1 - 10 of 11
The end of The Great Moderation
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 28/07/2022
» It could be said that the era of economic normalcy is over. For about two decades before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, we witnessed what economists came to call "The Great Moderation" -- an era of moderate economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates and improved fiscal discipline. The US dollar was relatively weak while other currencies such as the yen, euro, yuan and even the baht appreciated.
Three headwinds for the global economy
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 23/10/2021
» In the past few months or so, several headwinds have emerged in the world economic arena. We have seen a sharp increase in commodity prices, including natural gas, crude oil, and coal, which has reached US$240 a tonne from about $70 last year. The result has been an electricity generation deficit in the biggest emerging economies such as China and India.
2021: No clear path out of the abyss
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 24/10/2020
» As 2020 starts drawing to a close, it is constructive to look towards the year ahead. Given how miserable and uncertain 2020 has been, it is only natural that many of us will be looking forward to a brighter New Year.
Be careful of the turning tide
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 09/09/2020
» As we expected, the global and Thai economies have reached low points not seen in decades and have begun to recover gradually in recent weeks. But in terms of investing, we are beginning to see a significant shift in the theme.
Is this the turning point?
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 25/07/2020
» In our last column we warned about the great uncertainties surrounding the divergence of the economic and investment worlds, and how they may converge due to the rise of those uncertainties. It is possible that we may begin to see a turning point this month.
The world after Covid
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 27/06/2020
» The second quarter of 2020 has seen a divergence between the investment world and real economic conditions. Despite a recent uptick, the global economy is still contracting: the IMF has just downgraded its global GDP forecast to -4.9% from -3.0%.
Old risks fade, new risks emerge
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 23/05/2020
» May has been the month when investment and economic reality diverged. The global economic contraction is deepening. Composite purchasing managers' indices, the most timely economic indicator, hit a record low globally in April. Preliminary estimates for May show a slightly slower rate of contraction, but the figures are still in deep negative territory.
Coping with three crises
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 28/03/2020
» Humanity is facing three crises at the same time: a public health crisis, an economic crisis and a financial crisis. Since these three crises are intertwined, to stop any one of them, we must stop the source.
Don't catch the falling knife
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 29/02/2020
» The steep declines this week in equity prices and bond yields, both domestic and international, reflect fears that coronavirus cases outside China will mark the start of a wider outbreak that will deal a blow to the global and Thai economy, resulting in a downgrade of the SET.
Light at the end of the tunnel
Business, Piyasak Manason, Published on 03/01/2020
» For global investors, the sky started brightening as a tumultuous 2019 drew to a close. Stock indices in recent weeks have gained 2-6%, with developed markets rising the most, and many are closing in on all-time highs. Most prominent are the US stock indices, where every day the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq have been touching historic highs.