Showing 11 - 20 of 44
3.2% GDP growth 'pie in the sky'
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 11/01/2024
» This year must be my lucky year. One of the key points of this article is to underline the risk of financial crisis compared to 1997. But this time it would not come from bank failures, it would come from defaults on corporate bonds and commercial papers. The reasons are the low cash position of corporates from many years of weak economic performance and, most importantly, today's super-tight domestic liquidity to refinance matured bonds and papers. I am a little wary that readers may scorn such a bold opinion. However, out of the blue, my opinion was proven correct on Monday when Italian-Thai Development (ITD) announced the postponement of payments on its bonds due in 2024 to 2026 with a total value of 14.45 billion baht for two years.
Will foreign investors still be wooed?
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 28/12/2023
» This is my last article for 2023. Appropriately, I should write about the 2024 economic outlook but I have decided to postpone that to be the first article of 2024 as the analysis might be too unpleasant to digest right now. However, I will leave a "teaser" for readers to ponder over during the long holidays. As such, I am left with two choices: an article about informal debt -- I estimate outstanding debt to be over 400 billion baht and that it could have strong ties with grey money -- or an article about Thailand's ability to attract foreign investors, as our Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin travels all over the world to attract them. In the end, I opted for the latter.
A 4-win solution to the handout plan
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 30/11/2023
» There could be a four-win solution to the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme.
Dear Santa: Please send $14 billion
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 02/11/2023
» What Thailand needs is money, money -- and money. The government needs 560 billion baht to run its 10,000 baht cash handout programme next year, and the country needs (at least) 420 billion baht to prevent the 4th quarter economy from collapsing.
When times get tough, Thais party
News, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 07/09/2023
» Today's article is far from being sarcastic towards or mocking Thais. On the contrary, it explains the current weakness of the economy and, more importantly, the serious implications for the effectiveness of the government's economic stimulus packages. So, this article is recommended reading for the new economic team.
Pheu Thai's cash handouts a likely flop
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 24/08/2023
» The title of this article says it all. Pheu Thai Party's flagship economic stimulus policy of handing out 10,000 baht to all Thais aged above 16 years old, with an estimated cost of 560 billion baht, will most likely fail to stimulate (or jump-start) the economy from the recent economic slump.
Reviving Thai economy is a tall order
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 27/07/2023
» By the time readers read this article, Thailand still does not have a real government. But judging from the game being played, it is not too hard to guess which party will lead a new government.
Whoever takes office will inherit a mess
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 15/06/2023
» The election result is clear and the MOU to form a 312-seat government in the 500-seat parliament is agreed. But who will lead Thailand and its economy for the next four years is unclear. Whether it will be a pro-equality government, pro-growth government, or even a pro-big-spending government remains in doubt.
Getting ready for a new economic era
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 01/06/2023
» Admittedly, I did not vote for Move Forward Party (MFP). I did like the idea of pro-democracy, equality for all, people-centric policies, and de-monopolisation, all of which they espouse.
New govt faces 4 economic time bombs
Oped, Chartchai Parasuk, Published on 18/05/2023
» The election result is already out and Thailand is heading for a big policy change. As the party with most seats, the Move Forward Party will form the government. The second place-getter -- the Pheu Thai Party -- has agreed to be in the coalition. These two parties, however, have totally different views on how to run the economy.